1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by Ron Gotcher, May 27, 2009.

  1. willwin

    willwin Senior Member

    Messages:
    159
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement


    You've said so much about EB2 India. What about EB3 India?

    By 2011, you think EB3 I will also be down to 2 years retrogression? In other words, when will all the EB3 I 2007 filers be cleared?

    Thanks for your time!
     
  2. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    India EB3 is an easier problem. My understanding is that there are more EB2 applicants than EB3 applicants. The EB2 cutoff dates aren't as bad because more numbers are available. One the big backlog gets cleared, however, both should see pretty substantial cutoff date advancement.
     
  3. willwin

    willwin Senior Member

    Messages:
    159
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    In this immigration world of darkness (uncertainty), your words are definitely a candle light (hope)!

    Thanks Ron!
     
  4. srini88

    srini88 Junior Member

    Messages:
    25
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    Ron

    Maybe I am missing a basic point here but how does processing of all the back log of cases by CIS move the dates forward for India EB2/EB3 specifically? Since each country has a limit just because I process the backlog still implies that there a lot of people in the queue for India hence the VB dates should still be retrogressed not just by a couple of yrs but a lot due to the high demand?
     
  5. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    Technically, India's single state limit is about 9,800 visas per year. Last year, India received about 25,000 visa numbers. The single state limit is not static.
     
  6. Brightsider

    Brightsider Junior Member

    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    Ron,

    This may have been asked before, do bear with me.
    With the President and the Secy/DHS talking about administrative reform measures, I would be glad if you could tell us the legal position on the following two issues.

    1. Are quarterly quotas mandated by statute or can the entire quota be released on 1st October of any year?

    2. Can DOS keep the priority dates retrogressed despite availability of visa numbers only to keep new AOS applications from being filed and added to the mountain of pending applications?
    And, if the above is possible, can there be adjudication of applications because numbers are available or does it depend on the dates becoming current?
    In other words, is there a statutory force to the issue of priority dates and the visa bulletin announcements?

    This is not to mean that I am advocating or wishing closure of the door after me. I am only trying to understand the context of administrative fixes and various possibilities. There had been some talk, dont remember where I read it, about allowing applications to be filed even without the dates being current.

    Ultimately, it is the governing statute that has the last word. Do help us understand it in the context of the above concerns.

    Once again, sincerely appreciate the great job you are doing.
     
  7. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    The statute limits visa issuance to no more than 28% in each of the first three calendar quotas for the fiscal year. The Visa Office does not keep cutoff dates retrogressed in order to prevent AOS filings. The allocate as many visas as are available each month.
     
  8. Brightsider

    Brightsider Junior Member

    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    Allow me to rephrase the question.

    Please bear with me, coz I am not trying to prove a point or be argumentative. Far from it, I am trying to make sense of some random reports of applicants getting their green cards, even while their priority date is not current. At the same time, I am also clutching at straws hoping for green card issuances to EB2/3- I, in the remaining two months as well as when the new FY begins.

    Is there any statutory force to visa bulletins and the priority dates it mentions?
    For example, is it possible, at least in theory, for adjudication to take place because a couple of visa numbers were available, even though the priority date in the visa bulletin showed retrogression or simply 'U'?
    If visa bulletins had the force of law, (I presume)there would be no adjudication even if one visa was available to be issued.

    Your considered opinion, Ron.
     
  9. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    The law is explicit: there must be a current visa number available at the time the adjustment of status is granted. If a visa number is not used in the month in which it is issued by the Visa Office, the law requires it to be returned so that it can be reissued later. Of course, as well know all too well, the CIS rarely obeys the law. It could be that they have held on to numbers issued to them months ago and are only just now using them. It would not surprise me one bit. It would be totally illegal, but it would not surprise me.
     
  10. citationx750

    citationx750 Junior Member

    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    Ron, thank you for this very helpful topic. Could you please comment on EB2 China? Any insight is appreciated.
     
  11. User101

    User101 Junior Member

    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Why it is impossible right now to predict cutoff date movement

    DOS reports : Fiscal Year 2007 - 17,795 GC issued to EB3 India

    http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVp2.pdf

    How Eb3 india got visas more than specified limit?





     
  12. pertune0

    pertune0 Member

    Messages:
    63
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Roughly calculating cut off date movement EB-3 ROW

    Hello Att.Ron (US immigration )
    And

    Sean D

    I have calculated roughly how will cut off date move & when PD 2006 July/August become current.
    the facts behind asking updated docs from applicant PD 2006 July now when cut off date is June 2002 for EB-3 ROW??

    (1)Total pending cases till 2006 July(I think recent uscis data might have included dependants also)## about 44,000.

    (2) As May 2005(EB-3 ROW) is current for 5 months in 2009.I think applicant waiting/left to file AOS may be very less#less than 1500 & there might be very few cases at NVC.

    (3) PD 2006 March was current for 2 months in 2008 may/june&2007 july fisco,there might be some cases at NVC & about Max.20% of pending cases (from pending cases May 2005 to March 2006) may be waiting for AOS !

    (4)From March 2006 to July 2006 there might be max.33% cases (of total pending from march-July 2006)waiting for AOS & 10% for visa number at NVC.This PD is current for 2 month in 2007 July.

    (5) There is approx. 22% denial rate for AOS!

    (6) Finally, there remain total 40,000 active cases (approx) at CIS & NVC for EB-3 ROW till 2006 July.

    (7) total 148000 visas for employment based applicant & EB-3 ROW will get approx. 26000 +/-this fical year.

    (8)If visa office/USCIS moves with clearing all pending cases,PD 2006 July/August will become current by 2011 march!! ,but i think USCIS can't clear old cases quickly (see 10,000 cases with very old PD whose PD is current for sixty months!)
    So, I think this PD (2006 JULy/August)may be current with in this fiscal year!!!!!!
    Sean D .... for your opinion!
     
  13. pertune0

    pertune0 Member

    Messages:
    63
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    prediction of cutoff date movement

    Hello Att.Ron,
    For your expert opinion...
    My rough estimation when P.D. of 2006 July (EB-3 ROW) will be current
    I hope USCIS has posted genuine data &dependants might have included in the backlogs.
    (1) Total number of cases from EB-3 ROW pending till 2006 July is about 44,000(by adding number of pending cases published)
    (2) P.D. May 2005 is current for 5 months in 2009,2 months in 2008 & 2 months in 2007,so applicant waiting to file AOS & visa number at NVC might be less than 1,200(upto this PD)
    (3)PD 2006 March was current for 2 months in 2008 & 2 months in 2007 ,so there might be very few cases at NVC & max 20% cases waiting to file AOS(25 % of cases pending between 2005 May to 2006 March)
    (4)There might be max. 35 % cases waiting to file AOS with applicant PD 2006 march-July 2006 ( 33% of total pending cases between 2006 March to July 2006)& 10% waiting visa at NVC.This PD was current for 2 months in July 2007.
    (5) More than 22% AOS denial rate.
    (6) Now total active cases till 2006 July is approx.40,000 (EB-3 ROW )
    (7) PD 2006 (EB-3 ROW)July/August might be current till 2011 march if USCIS clears all backlogs...but not possible..
    (8) More than 10,000 cases are with very old P.D. i.e. their PD has been current more than 60/sixty months till now......see PD 2001 April 3,500 pending cases how/why/where/howlong...
    (9)So...... I think PD 2006 EB-3 ROW July/August might be current this fiscal year!!!!!!!
    (10) This may be the reason why NVC recently asked updated DS230 from applicant with PD 2006 July EB-3 ROW as cut off date is 2002 June!!

    Sean D ,what do you think.........
     

Share This Page