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What Is Likely To Happen During The Rest Of This Year

Discussion in 'Immigration Policy' started by Ron Gotcher, Jun 12, 2014.

  1. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    When the dust settles from the Cantor loss and the Graham win, we will have a much better idea of where things stand. While I don't think that immigration reform legislation is dead, I do think that it remains on life support. The Cantor defeat, however, may have started a cascade that results in S.744 coming up for a vote.

    Cantor's defeat almost certainly spells the end of Boehner's speakership. After the November election, if Boehner believes that passing S.744 is best for his party, notwithstanding some of the wingnuts in his caucus, all he has to do is schedule it for a vote. I feel pretty confident that the votes are there to pass it.

    The big IF in all of this is what does Boehner really believe? If he believes that passing S.744 is best for his party in the long run, he will likely bring it up for a vote. On the other hand, if he feels that forcing a vote on S.744 will harm his party, then he isn't going to do it. In that this is likely his last term as Speaker, he has the freedom to follow his conscience.

    Almost certainly, there will be no Congressional action on any kind of immigration reform before the August recess. If nothing is passed, the Obama administration will roll out an administrative amnesty in the form of a massive "deferred action" program.

    Irrespective of legislative or administrative amnesty, the proposed DHS regulations (including the H-4 employment authorization provision) will be promulgated as final regulations this fall.

    If we see S.744 brought up for a vote, it will have to be during the lame duck session following the November election.
     
  2. sigler

    sigler Junior Member

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    What does the new Majority Leader (McCarthy, I think) think about S.744?
     
  3. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    He is a strong proponent of S.744 He is also in a district that is about 40% Latino.
     
  4. sigler

    sigler Junior Member

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    Hopefully he'll feel pressured by voters in his district to bring something related to immigration up for a vote before the mid terms, since his district has so many hispanics in it.
     
  5. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    It isn't just McCarthy's decision. A majority of the Republican caucus must support it. Cantor was able to block a vote because he was in a leadership position, but I really doubt that McCarthy will schedule a vote if a majority of his caucus opposes it. The question is whether he will show leadership and try to persuade them.
     
  6. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    I have always said that there will be a deferred action for all illegal arrivals. I know you disagreed on this earlier but now it is getting clear that this action is inevitable.

    For people who have waited for more than a decade on a legal path H4 work authorization is nothing special.

    If "they" are really serious Why can't EADs be issued to people who have had I140 approved for a reasonable period of time ?

    Also why can't dependent so be removed from cap ?
     
  7. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    I don't disagree with you. Those are sensible measures. Getting Congress to do anything that is sensible is next to impossible, however.
     
  8. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    "they" meaning the administration. You don't need congressional approval to implement them they are simply administrative actions.
     
  9. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Obama is on thin ice with administrative "fixes." Back in 1975 President Ford paroled about a half million Vietnamese into the U.S., rather than go through the asylum/refugee system. Congress just about had a cow and immediately passed legislation preventing any president from ever doing that again. While I don't doubt that Obama has the authority to grant deferred action to millions of people, I imagine there will be the mother of all backlashes from Congress when he does it.
     
  10. sigler

    sigler Junior Member

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    Source: http://thehill.com/homenews/house/210041-white-house-new-gop-leadership-boosts-immigrations-chances


    White House: Election boosts immigration


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    By Justin Sink - 06/20/14 10:04 AM EDT

    The White House believes that the election of a new House leadership team has opened up an opportunity to pass immigration reform this summer, presidential adviser Valerie Jarrett said Friday.

    Jarrett said the change necessitated by Rep. Eric Cantor’s (R-Va.) surprising primary loss gives new life to immigration reform.



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    “There’s a change in leadership obviously with Cantor’s loss and so we have an opportunity with a new team in place in the House to act,” Jarrett told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast on Friday.
    President Obama believes “this summer is a pivotal opportunity for us to get comprehensive immigration reform passed through the House,” she added.

    In a historic upset earlier this month, Cantor lost his primary to Tea Party challenger Dave Brat, who repeatedly accused the Republican lawmaker of supporting “amnesty” for illegal immigrants. On Thursday, Republicans elected Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to replace Cantor as majority leader.

    Conventional wisdom has held that Cantor’s loss would spook already wary Republican leaders from pursuing immigration reform legislation over the summer.

    But Jarrett said in discussions with business leaders in recent days that “nobody has said to me they thought his defeat was because of immigration reform.” In recent days, Jarrett shared a dinner with News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch and a breakfast with the Business Roundtable to discuss the topic.

    Jarrett also noted that Cantor himself disputed the notion that immigration was to blame during an interview on Sunday.

    "I don’t think there is any one reason for the outcome of the election," Cantor told CNN.

    Jarrett also indicated that Republican lawmakers had told the White House they would be more able to address immigration reform after the primaries had concluded.

    “Leading up to the election, what we were hearing from the House is we’ll wait until the primary season are over,” Jarrett said. “So in a sense, cool your jets, let’s get through the primary season, and then with that behind us between the primary and the end of the summer we have an opportunity. And so, the election’s over now.”

    Jarrett also said the administration was looking at executive actions he could take that would be “building upon” the deferred action program he announced in 2012, which affords some children who came to the U.S. illegally temporary legal status.

    “He’s looking at what are the options he has under the executive powers he has,” Jarrett said. “I don’t want to prejudge what those might be."
     

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