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What Do We Think We Know, Based On Tweets From Ailaac15?

Discussion in 'General discussion about executive action' started by Ron Gotcher, Jun 19, 2015.

  1. msr

    msr Member

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    If at all if it happens, we would have to see how they will advance the dates. Will it be 6 months in just one bulletin or will it be 2 months each in 3 bulletins.
     
  2. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Everything depends on how much spillover we get from FB. If we get spillover as in 2013 or 2014 then the dates could move to something like Feb/March 2010 by sep 2016
     
  3. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    USCIS laid out that guidance in a policy memo. That's what we lawyers call an interpretive rule. Now that they have done this, if they want the courts to defer to them on a different interpretation, they have to go through notice and comment rulemaking. That is a long, drawn out process.
     
  4. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    It would likely be about six months, all at once, then tweaks to the interval as they see how fast or slow AOS processing becomes.
     
  5. msr

    msr Member

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    I sincerely hope so, Ron. My PD is Feb 16th 2009. I'm expecting that it will become current again by the end of this year ( Oct 1 - Dec 31 2015 ). I got my EAD last year in November.
     
  6. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Let me elaborate a bit on how pre-registration would likely work. The Visa Office (VO) would take all of the known demand and use the known supply of visas to calculate the number of applicants that could be given visas in the next month. That's what they do now to determine cutoff dates.

    For qualifying dates, they would look to see how long the USCIS is taking to adjudicate I-485 applications. For purposes of this example, let's say that interval is eight months.

    They would then look to see how many visas would be available for a specific category (for example, EB2I) for the balance of the fiscal year. Let's say that the number is 12,000. This means that they could issue an average of 1,500 visas per month to stay within the quota.

    They would then look at the list of approved I-140 beneficiaries registered with the USCIS and NVC. Since not everyone who is eligible will apply each month, they build in a fudge factor. For purpose of this example, let's say that they are going to use the figure 1,800 for each month. In that case, they would look at the priority date of the person 1,800 names from the oldest date and use that as the qualifying date.

    If the USCIS started moving faster or slower, they would adjust their calculations accordingly. The idea would be to have the final decision on an application made in the month that the priority date becomes current. Not all categories and countries would move at the same speed because of quota considerations.
     
    Legal Immigrant and msr like this.
  7. msr

    msr Member

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    Thanks for the detailed explanation, Ron.
     
  8. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    Thanks for elaboration. If we look at pending inventory the last one published ( not saying it is accurate but for this example), EB2I has some 10k applications for year 2009, and we ignore porting to keep it simple, do you see date will move to 2010 for year 2016?
     
  9. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    I agree that this is how it should work but can't the USCIS do the same thing today with the pending inventory.

    Last year USCIS issued visas for 2009 PD when 2008 PD was still pending. The pending applications are nothing but pre-registered applications. Why are they not being processed in the order of PD ?

    The problem cannot be solved by simply changing system. What needs be thought over is whether this new system can be implemented efficiently.
     
  10. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    You can ignore porting and keep it simple but your calculation will be way off and you will be disappointed for doing so.
     
  11. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    No i dont have any hopes, just trying to see how the qualifying date theory would change if any
     
  12. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    When you said "dates will move" did you mean PD or QD? There is no chance of PD moving into 2010 if FB spillover is less than 10K.
    If QD is implemented it can move the dates to Dec 2010 by Sep 2015. I really doubt if QD will be implemented before FY 2017, it is a big change.
     
  13. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    i meant QD, why do you think it takes so long, it doesnt require rule making nor legislation
     
  14. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    And without counting porting cases they would never be in a position to get right date anyway, i would rather hope they go by what they claim as pending inventory and implement QD
     
  15. jdoe99

    jdoe99 Well-Known Member

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    This is going to be the biggest drawback. We all have seen how the approvals have been completely Random in random out within the dates that are current. How will they address this? So once they start the qualifying dates procedure, its adding more future dates to the mix. I can't see what they will do then to address the inefficiency. I know that visa modernization is supposed to address that but there is no indication of how they are going to do that.
     
  16. righttolive

    righttolive Member

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    I really hope QD atleast takes effect in Sep ( dated atleast till 2010)
     
  17. MarkSells

    MarkSells Member

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    Different take:

    Some cases are faster to process and other's can be extremely difficult requiring RFE's, paperwork verification, out of status check, shady employer (consultants) and security checks. Instead of being stuck on a case and wasting visas they approve the cases which they can within FY. But, if you see overall cases with earlier PR do get approved earlier. It's not that they cleared 2009 while whole 2008 is pending. Processing barely touched 2009

    Even for cases not requiring extra processing speed is different at different processing centers and they cannot move case with earlier PR from one center to another overnight

    I would take random approval over wastage any day. Worst impact of random approval is for some people get approved in next FY
     
  18. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    the draw back there is if dates retrogress - they are still stuck because of processing delays - it maybe a guy sitting in uscis like the chennai monster/ beast and not willing to approve fast
     
  19. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Simple Fixes:
    1. Implement I-140 EAD with EAD
    2. Stop Concurrent Processing
     
  20. djayash

    djayash Guru

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    Damn, I am so bummed...My PD is Mar 26, 2010....All I am asking for is just EAD and job mobility. Don't even care about GC for now...Not sure how long I would have to wait.....Damn Damn Damn!!
     

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