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Visa Bulletin Changes Fall 2015

Discussion in 'General discussion about executive action' started by ashnov2012, Jul 21, 2015.

  1. waitingg4gc

    waitingg4gc Guru

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    If no eb3 movement has happened because of load spreading only then it would have made more sense if they had moved both eb2 & eb3 consistently this time and keep doing it in the following months.
     
  2. waitingg4gc

    waitingg4gc Guru

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    if it had done just once for letting people file their 485 then they could have done it with PD also, I think this date may not move forward consistently but probably will not retrogress like PD. I am completely sure that will move EB3 as well so that if the relief reaches to most of the people
     
  3. shandz

    shandz New Member

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    I know EB3P has a lot of pending inventory at the consular, but that is a good question to ask. If they released the annual consular inventory in Nov 15, we can see the current number. Maybe the allocation of the approved cases in AOS vs Consular. Too many factors to consider.

    EB3P EB3I
    11/1/14 28,578 21,351 Consular
    7/20/15 4,499 25,147 USCIS
    Total 33,077 46,498
     
  4. Kamakazee

    Kamakazee Super Moderator

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    If EB3P has so many consular cases, how is it moving to 2013?
     
  5. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Agree. If EB3P demand is high shouldn't they also be subjected to per-country cap ?
     
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  6. novembereb3

    novembereb3 New Member

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    I think the hidden EB3 inventory was true only between 2007 and 2014. There should not be any more hidden inventory based on the VB date movement over last two years. However, EB3 is already high on CP, I have see estimates of almost 50% of aos.

    I believe the only reason EB3 I is held back this month is because DOS does not have a good historic data to estimate EB3 ROW. This is the first time in a long time EB3 ROW is close to current and one year does not make trend. So, probably they did not want decided based off that.
     
  7. mayurjain13

    mayurjain13 Junior Member

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    What I think is there is no logic behind the current movement (though people can come with 'N' number of theories)!! dates were moved because they wanted to provide some relief to the immigrant community otherwise they already had the approved cases for the next 2 years (at least). They have done similar thing in the past (2011/12) where they moved dates vigorously in the name of generating inventory.
     
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  8. Kamakazee

    Kamakazee Super Moderator

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    Waiting to see EB3ROW demand does not explain EB3P movement. Unless EB3P has now cleared the old inventory already. If that's the case, all EB3ROW SOs should now go toEB3I. Either way, next month VB will hopefully make it clearer or the teleconference this Wednesday.

    Which brings another thought - anybody else think anti-immigrant groups will also attend this to get a grip on this AD predictability and see if they have basis to sue?
     
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  9. mfd1402

    mfd1402 Senior Member

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    Does that mean that they are expecting a big SO for eb2I as AD is Jul 2011 which would mean PD sgould reach 2010 or maybe 2011 for getting GC this year for eb2I
     
  10. mayurjain13

    mayurjain13 Junior Member

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    Again it means nothing. In 2011/12 they moved the dates to 2010 and everybody thought/predicted (at least in theory) the movement was because USCIS predicts that the EB2I dates would come some what close to 2010 in fiscal year 2012. Look at the situation after 4 years the approval dates are at 2005!!! That is why I am saying everybody is over analyzing, they might have their own reasons for the movement to justify however the real motive is to provide relief.
     
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  11. smartboy

    smartboy Senior Member

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    Nothing will come out on that teleconf, IMO.

    All the questions that would be answererd would be 'anyone before an XX/XX date can file for AOS' etc. Nothing more.

    I saw Greg tweet/replying (https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/642109199636414464) that CO has a meeting scheduled (w/AILA? others? - dont know). That is where those lawyers may get a feeler of the 'projected' movements, and nothing more...

    USCIS tele-conf is of no good, IMO. Anyone can attend -- Pro/Anti immigration folks. As in the past, they'd recommend folks to email to public.engage...@.. email with their Qs.

    No one can sue on what documentation can be filed for AoS/EAD etc .. lol
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2015
  12. shandz

    shandz New Member

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    Bulk of EB3P consular inventory are backlogged schedule A Nurses that does not require Labor Certification. They can recapture their old priority dates if they can find a new employer to continue their application. Either they were already cleared up or they cannot find an employer to sponsor them if the inventory remains high in CP.
     
  13. montyp80

    montyp80 Junior Member

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    Well that's one more reason why EB3I AD should have moved in last VB. I think most of the theories point towards 'work load balancing'. If not in next week's teleconf then next VB might clear up few things I hope.
     
  14. novembereb3

    novembereb3 New Member

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    Yes, I think EB3 I will move well into 2005 by end of fiscal year. I don't think it's worth crunching the numbers. But the trend looks like low eb3 row demand, which mean some SO for eb3 I
     
  15. usvisas

    usvisas New Member

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    Does anyone know at what point in the fiscal does the spillover numbers get determined and allocated or distributed?
     
  16. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    They usually make their estimates on the fly and apply them monthly.
     
  17. DonDraper

    DonDraper Guru

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    There could be several reasons but here is my take on it. EB3P number is a guess work while EB3I has a count as per i-485 fake inventory. Under the visa control process, the visa officer should make reasonable estimate of how many visa numbers are available and how much demand is present. So technically EB3P might have more numbers but the majority of them being CP, my guess would be that they estimate it to be too low.
     
  18. DonDraper

    DonDraper Guru

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    Unless the news make a big splash across the anti immigrant networks, it would probably fly under the radar. Nothing has really changed except that we now have two dates to deal with. Wonder, if any lawsuits would have any value ?
     
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  19. ColumbusDude

    ColumbusDude Active Member

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    All this discussion is fruitless. The one thing that will definitely point to a better estimate is this - How much EB3I Inventory was cleared in the August/September VB surge. This will give us a good pointer as far as future movement of EB3I is concerned.
     
  20. Kamakazee

    Kamakazee Super Moderator

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    I think the problem with EB3P is that no one knows what the actual number is till they show up for CP.
     

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