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Visa Bulletin Changes Fall 2015

Discussion in 'General discussion about executive action' started by ashnov2012, Jul 21, 2015.

  1. ashnov2012

    ashnov2012 New Member

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    Would like to get everyone ideas on what changes might be implemented on visa bulletin. We all know that it is officially announced in the "report" that later this year there will be a change in the bulletin.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2015
  2. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    They are talking about requiring the USCIS to be transparent with the pending backlog numbers (both pending AOS cases as well as approved I-140s). This, in turn, will allow people to gage waiting times more accurately.
     
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  3. R_S

    R_S Guru

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    Thanks Ron any time line for this to be implemented? from next VB ? or from 2016 ?
     
  4. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Supposedly, it will be this calendar year. The problem is that the USCIS has to gather all of that data. That means everyone in the agency having to take off their shoes and socks to help count.
     
  5. ashnov2012

    ashnov2012 New Member

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    It will definitely won't be this fiscal year. So my best guess is Oct/Nov 2015. We should wait and see:)
     
  6. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Keep in mind that it can't happen until the USCIS gives an honest count of all approved I-140 petitions and all pending EB AOS cases.
     
  7. R_S

    R_S Guru

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    That means it will never ever happen .... :) is it safe to say that ?
     
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  8. justice

    justice Member

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    And do you really see this happening? USCIS has never kept up with their word. Tks
     
  9. speedracer

    speedracer Guru

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    I doubt it will tell the reality... it is basically the best guesstimate ... no matter what.. the agency is not designed to work efficiently nor effectively.. the numbers will be good enough for govt work..
     
  10. ashnov2012

    ashnov2012 New Member

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    Why the h*** they can't give the real numbers ? Come on it is just a laborious process but not a rocket science, not sure what will be the hold up on this.
     
  11. speedracer

    speedracer Guru

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    I think you answered your questions.. its "laborious" .. exactly..
     
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  12. soopergal

    soopergal Guru

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    Ron, I can only think of one way (okay may be couple ways) to get an honest count of all approved 1-40 and pending EB AOS cases - by making everyone current or "Pre-register". Or else the proposed I-140 EAD rule means "everyone" with an approved i-140 can apply for a EAD/AP but job-portability kicks in a year later..or something like that..

    Outside of these two, please enlighten us if you can think of any other way to get an honest count of all approved I-140 petitions and all pending EB AOS cases
     
  13. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    They are going to guess, as long as that guess means moving dates multiple years - it is still ok.

    i dont think they have had a way to get real numbers because they dont keep track of atleast it looks like how many 140s moved to 485 over the years . or the systems they designed and use may just crash doing such report
     
  14. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    It's very easy to capture and report accurate numbers. The problem is that it is embarrassing because it will show how slow and inefficient the USCIS really is.
     
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  15. manixium

    manixium Super Moderator

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    I think this is a good way, but imagine the implications. Current for a month or two, until a giant deluge of applications come through, and then retrogress things into ancient times. Then with the new count, move things extremely slowly. So you'll be on EAD forever and get a GC no sooner. Good for some people, certainly, but what about those who miss that 1 month? They'll be utterly shafted, which isn't fair.
     
  16. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    If there is accurate disclosure, I doubt that we will ever see any kind of serious retrogression again.
     
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  17. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    They need EB3 I cases from 2005 - 2010 to predict accurately for EB2 I - how that count will look like??
     
  18. ashnov2012

    ashnov2012 New Member

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    I never looked into the details much, but i always thought it is impossible to predict the exact or even close timeline for EB2 dates. Isn't the porting from EB3 to EB2 make it harder to predict ? Unless we assume that all EB3 filers after 5 years experience will move to EB2. It would be great if someone explains me how this can be sorted out to predict more accurately as we have no control on the porting. How about spill over ?
     
  19. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    The State Department has a vast amount of experience in this area. They know how many people who are eligible actually apply in their first month of eligibility, how many apply in their second month, and how many never apply. If they have accurate data, they can apply their historical experience and come up with estimates that are accurate within one or two percent.
     
  20. Sailor

    Sailor New Member

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    Dear Ron

    I just saw this at Murthy's website and is this valid

    Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3) for India & China
    The key developments in the August 2015 Visa Bulletin occurred in the EB3 category. The EB3 China cutoff date unexpectedly retrogressed by seven years, to June 1, 2004. This surprise development is connected to prior expectations of unused family-sponsored numbers that would have shifted to EB3 China; extra numbers that did not materialize. The DOS expects that the cutoff date for this category will shift forward to a 2010 or 2011 date near the beginning of FY16, which begins October 1, 2015.

    The DOS did not explain the reason for the four-month cutoff date jump in the EB3 category for India. This advancement had not been predicted in last month's DOS report. The DOS now states, however, that EB3 India, China, and the Philippines may move forward by several months in September. Whether this occurs depends upon demand for visa numbers in EB3 worldwide during the early part of August 2015.
     

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