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USCIS pending 485 numbers

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by srinu_chirala, Sep 23, 2009.

  1. crystalroof

    crystalroof Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron,

    You have said that China EB3 has a higher percentage of Consular Processing. Do you know roughly how much higher? 20%-30%?
     
  2. willwin

    willwin Senior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Correction: EB2 Chinese and Indian applicants are no longer constrained by the 7% per country limit.

    Or may be just like USCIS, DOS and everybody else, you no longer consider EB3 India as existing anymore :-(
     
  3. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    You have to read that comment in the full context of what I wrote. When there are unused visas, single state limited applicants are no longer constrained by the 7% limit. In the limited amount of time and space available to me, I can't always insert warnings and disclaimers to make sure that I don't step on anyone's hypersensitive toes. I have to depend on people having the intelligence to understand the subject of a post and know that my comments are directed at that subject.

    In this particular instance, the point that I was trying to get across is the idea that unused worldwide numbers are not "assigned" to specific single state limited countries or even single state limited countries as a group. Rather, the people from those countries who are otherwise constrained by the single state limit get treated as though there is no limit with respect to these unused numbers.

    Some Chinese applicants have written to me about what the consider unfair preferential treatment of Indian applicants. They feel that the unused numbers should be split evenly between the single state limited countries. That is not what the law provides. When there are unused numbers, they go to applicants with older priority dates who were unable to receive numbers due to the single state limit without regard for where they were born. In other words, they get treated just like all other applicants who are not subject to the 7% limit.

    Now, if I didn't specifically say that since there are no unused third preference numbers, this does not apply to Chinese and India third preference applicants, I apologize. I just assumed that anyone reading what I had written would understand that from the context. In the future, I'll consider doing a separate posting for those who are a bit slower to comprehend.
     
  4. mrcool

    mrcool Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron, you do a fabulous job of putting things into perspective. Well, I don't understand why people just get so sensitive sometimes. May be it's the delay in waiting under EB3-I perhaps.
     
  5. mamasud91

    mamasud91 Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers


    Thanks, Ron! By the way, your recently released news bulletin has shed lights to many ambiguous terms. A huge applaud for the job well done.

    Now, I have some other questions, that arose from my newly gained knowledge from reading your posts. Would you mind taking some time answering them?

    Q-1. If a 10% visa number is allocated to consular posts, we have 0.9*(140000)=126,000 visas available for I-485 processing in service centers. So shouldn't be the total possible visa numbers of the single state limited quota countries in any category be 7% of (126,000*28.6%)=2522 instead of 2800 for service center processing and the rest (2800-2500)=300 for consular processing?

    Q-2: If someone applies for adjustment of status, I-485, does he/she have an option to have it processed overseas through consular processing? If she does, will her application be displayed in the inventory published by USCIS?

    Q-3: Schedule A nurses have a different category, I presume. What is it? Do they have a different cutoff dates than EB-3 before? Does it explain the uncanny 485 applications in EB-3 categories in times when the cutoff dates never reached those priority dates for the general EB-3 category?

    Q-4: When does the spillover start occuring? Does it take place at any quarter if vertically spilled visas are ready? or only during the fourth quarter? The two scenarios would instigate distinct patterns of demands. For instance, if spillover is available from the beginning, India and China EB-2 will progress quickly to ultimately let new applications getting in and thus create more possible adjudications and demand. Whereas, with their limited 2800 visas in first three quarters, these categories are only able to move so far, thus keeping the total demand somewhat static.

    Q-5: When spillover takes place, how is it distributed? If China and India have 17000 and 45000 pending cases respectively, and there is 40000 spillover visas available, how will they be distributed? Let us assume both would have priority dates set to a level that allows sufficient consumption of visas.

    Q-6: If indeed it boils down to a scenario where some spillover is available for EB-3 consumption, how will they be distributed? If WW, China, India, Mexico and Philli- all needed spillover visa, where would they go first? or will they be distributed at a ratio of their corresponding vertical spillover?

    Q-7: If OW category mostly applies overseas, and their I-485 pending numbers show less than 1000 in pre-September 2007 priority dates, why should we still deduct 5000 from the total available EB-3 numbers?

    Thanks in advance for your taking time to read and answer my long questions.

    Best Regards-
    Hoping to be a permanent resident
    PD Feb 06, WW EB-3
     
  6. pineapple

    pineapple Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I was upset by what I saw and what I read about EB3 China. China-born EB3 has only about 6000 pending cases, fewer than any other categories, however the priority date for EB3 China is at 2/22/2000, which means only 142 pending cases to adjudicate in Oct, while other categories has far more cases for review in Oct, this looks unfair. Do you have idea why EB3 China is held back by DOS? According to the statistics in the past four years, EB3 China is getting fewer visa numbers year after year, how can this happened?
     
  7. ssh

    ssh Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron - Can you please suggest when a priority date of Jun, 2002 , EB-3 India can become current. Although , looking at the EB3 pending cases before May 2001 provided by USCIS :
    • EB3 ROW has 3949 pending cases
    • EB3 Mexico has 2244 pending cases
    • EB3 India has 587 pending cases
    Even then why is Priority date for EB-3 ROW Jun 2002 , EB-3 Mexico - May, 2002 and India is still lagging behind with almost a year and is 15 April , 2001 for EB-3, even with fewer number of pending cases?
     
  8. nolefan

    nolefan Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hello Ron,
    I have been silent spectator for long and I greatly enjoy reading this blog. The knowledge you bring is great. The blog is very informative & insightful and has given us lots of useful information. I have been thinking of contributing to this blog for sometime related to Pending visa number and spillover topic and this is my first post regarding that.

    Recently, I did some calculations on EB1 & EB spillover to EB2 India/China for FY 2010. Here are points I considered

    • Average Consular processing numbers for EB1 & EB2 / year are based on historic data from 1998 to 2008. (Data is available on DHS site)
    • All ROW EB1 & EB2 applications from following categories will be approved before spill over happens
      • consular processing (EB1 & EB2)
      • ROW (EB1 & EB2) + Mexico + Philippines
    • most applications for India / China EB2 from 2004 and prior are approved except few as mentioned on CIS report.
    • Even if there are EB2 ROW I140 applications are pending, they may not be more than few thousands (based historic EB2 usage from EB2 ROW). Based on economic conditions, I assumed 5000 new I485 applications after approval of I140.

    Calculations

    EB1 spill over

    Total quota allowed: 40040
    Average consular processing: 5290
    AOS Pending: 4050
    New applications: 2500
    spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 5290 – 4050 – 2500
    spill over from EB1~ 28500

    EB2 spill over

    Total quota allowed: 40040
    Average consular processing: 2199
    AOS Pending (ROW): 7871
    New applications: 2500
    spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 2199 – 7871 – 2500
    spill over from EB1~ 27470

    Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 28500 + 27470

    Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 55970


    EB4 spill over
    Total quota allowed: 9800
    Average visa numbers used: 7432…… based on data from 1998 to 2008
    spill over = 2368

    EB5 spill over
    Total quota allowed: 9800
    Average visa numbers used: 465 …… based on data from 1998 to 2008
    2008 data: 1360
    spill over : 8440



    Total spill over for EB2 India / China: spill over from (EB1 + EB2 + EB3 + EB4)

    i.e. 28500 + 27470 + 2368 + 8440 ..

    Total spill over for EB2 India / China: 66778

    Preadjudicated EB2 India / China applications ~ 51000

    Total pending EB2 India / China ~ 67061

    If spill over occurs quarterly, then I would expect EB2 India / China dates should faster throughout year may be current by end of FY 2010.

    Regards

    Nolefan
     
  9. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I suppose you could look at it that way, if you want to assume a uniform backlog. I'd rather try to estimate the overall backlog and then apply it to the overall availability of numbers. We don't really know how the CIS/consular post workload breaks down. Based on my experience, I tend to believe that the CIS has the older cases, while the consular posts have the newer - relatively speaking.

    Q-2: If someone applies for adjustment of status, I-485, does he/she have an option to have it processed overseas through consular processing? If she does, will her application be displayed in the inventory published by USCIS?
    No, they don't have any special quota these days. They fall into EB3 just like everyone else.
    The Visa Office (VO) looks at the known demand for a quarter and, if they feel that there isn't enough demand to use up the quarterly allocation, they will allow people from the single state limited countries to use the "leftover" visas for that quarter.

    Q-5: When spillover takes place, how is it distributed? If China and India have 17000 and 45000 pending cases respectively, and there is 40000 spillover visas available, how will they be distributed? Let us assume both would have priority dates set to a level that allows sufficient consumption of visas.
    When there are unused numbers in a quarter, those numbers do not get assigned to specific single state limited countries. Rather, applicants from those countries are allowed to use the leftover numbers, with those having the oldest priority dates getting first shot at the available numbers. It is theoretically possible for people from a single country to use all of the leftover numbers for an entire year - provided they all have old priority dates.
    That demand is still out there, even if it isn't shown on the CIS AOS backlog charts. If there are enough EB3OW applicants to use up 5,000 EB3 numbers per year, those numbers will get subtracted from the EB3 quota. The only exception would be if a substantial number of the EB3OW applciants were from a single state limited country. Then, they would be subject to the single state limit.
     
  10. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    You are only seeing part of the picture. There are more than 142 people with China EB3 priority dates earlier than February, 2000. These people are on the NVC waiting list, which was not included with the CIS numbers.
     
  11. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    You have to remember that the CIS charts only show cases reported by the CIS. This does not include cases pending with the NVC and cases that are still unadjudicated by the CIS. Also, even within the single state limit, there are more Mexican EB3 visas available because there is a fall down within their 7% limit from EB2 to EB3. There is no such fall down for India.
     
  12. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Within the closed universe of facts you recite, your calculations are valid. There are, however, additional facts either not contemplated in your recital or different from your assumptions. First, because worldwide EB1 and EB2 are always current, the CIS tends to process these cases much more quickly. As a result, they don't appear on the CIS backlog charts in proper proportion to actual filings. The usage is much higher than you assume for your calculations.
     
  13. Pooreb3row

    Pooreb3row Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron,
    Do you have the avg Visa used in previous years by Mexico and Phil and ROW ? If you have this data could you please post this . Your reply will be highly appreciated. I did not get this data anywhere.
    Thanks
     
  14. ssh

    ssh Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers


    Thank you for the reply Ron! Any insight as to when the Priority date of Jun 2002 EB-3 India can become current?
     
  15. INDEB2

    INDEB2 Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron and Nolefan,
    Please review this and comment. I am surprised by the positive projections in various forums for EB2-India, frankly getting depressed. Look at this link:

    http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV(Part2).pdf

    If you look at the fiscal year 2008 data from the above link 161, 627 EB visas were issued, exceeded 140 K because of FB spill over.

    Here is the break down
    EB1-36,590
    EB2 India and China- 21,782
    EB2 ROW-48,353
    EB3-47,204
    EB4-7698
    total=161,627

    In other words EB-2 ROW consumed >48K visas, the only reason EB2-India got 14,818 visas was because of spillover from FB and few thousand from EB1.

    We still don't have the data for fiscal year 2009 which just ended Sep 09. We'll have a better idea. Unfortunately most people are making calculations in various forums based on pending- 485s from ROW which don't reflect the actual consumption.


    The only hope for spillover in FY2010 is the deep unemployment situation leading to DOL tightening of "PERM integrity" leading to reduction of EB2-ROW consumption. It is not clear if EB-1 consumption will also decline because of the economy since many of these are for multinational executives, not academic.

    Ron, I'll appreciate your response. Thanks.
     
  16. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Sorry, I haven't had time to run that down for you. You can get it directly from this link, however.
     
  17. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Your observation is astute. I don't think there was much in the way of spillover from family based in FY2009. Also, while demand was down, there weren't that many WW EB2 visas available to be made available to single state limited applicants. The same is true for FY2010. The projections that a lot of people are coming up with are based on wholly unfounded assumptions of a much larger supply of visas than actually exists.
     
  18. Pooreb3row

    Pooreb3row Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Thank you Ron for pointing me to the URL where I found the numbers. Do you have any idea when VO will publish the data of FY 2009 ?
     
  19. nolefan

    nolefan Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    From looking at CIS EB2 AOS pending data, there is a reason that CIS kept priority dates for EB2 India / China to Early 2005 and the reason is that CIS simply doesn't have enough EB2 ROW applications that can be readily approved. I can't believe that they have thousands EB2 waiting at Visa posts (based on CP data for last 10 years).

    From FLC Data Center, we have upto date data on PERM cases approved from March 05 to Sept 08. Earlier, the major unknown was cases prior to March 05. Now from CIS pending data, one can easily see how many applications are there before March 05.

    The other unknowns are
    · EB2 PERM cases waiting to be approved at Atlanta NPC and Chicago NPC
    · EB3 to EB2 conversion

    I heard that Atlanta has 65000 PERM cases pending. Out of them 34000 are in final review. By assuming conservatively, say 10% of them are EB2 ROW, it adds up 3400. So EB2 ROW new applications will be 6800 (by 2.0 dependant ratio). I don’t know Pending PERM statistics Chicago NPC. Let’s say another 5000 for EB2 ROW including dependant, also since I already accounted for 2500 new applications in my calculations above, then spill over will be ~ 27470 – 11800+2500 ~ 18000

    So even by going very conservative statistics, only EB2 spill over could be 18000 for FY 2010.

    For EB1, PERM is not required and one can directly file I140 – I485. The other unknowns would be applications at Visa posts and new applications during FY 2010 for both of which I have already assumed ( ~ 12K). EB1 spill over will be in the range of 28000.

    So going by most conservative statistics, I would say EB1 & EB2 combined spill over would be 46 K at least.

    Now there will be no meaning to all these calculations if CIS data is not what it looks. So, Particulary for EB2, I compared PERM approved cases data from March 2005 to July 2007 for India / China (assuming 2.0 for dependant factor) with that pending I485 applications and I found that they are with 5-10% of each other with pending data being higher than PERM data. so I have 90% confidence in data released by CIS.

     
  20. vperuv

    vperuv Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron

    Can you explain why there was little forward movement in EB2-I in November bulletin? Is there hope for more forward movement in that category in the December Bulletin? My interpretation is that USCIS has not used any spillover yet?

    Is that accurate?

    Thanks
    Venky
     

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