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USCIS pending 485 numbers

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by srinu_chirala, Sep 23, 2009.

  1. gc-patshala

    gc-patshala Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hello Ron,

    Do the 485 numbers in the latest USCIS updates include primary and dependent applicants? If it doesn't, then the processing and thus the wait time goes up dramatically...

    Also - these numbers likely include cases where both the husband/wife have filed for PR (double cases) which should be subtracted from the actual number of unique applicants?

    Thank you.
     
  2. patiently_waiting

    patiently_waiting Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hi Ron,

    Our hope of Visa Recapture has been doomed again ? Whether it has been passed in the House bill or not ?

    Thanks
     
  3. Astro

    Astro Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hi, Ron.

    Just want to ask about EB3 Philippines. The figure from the USCIS chart says there are 11,563 AOS cases pending. Using the 90-10 AOS/CP split then it means the total backlog cases for EB3 Phils. should be around only 12,848 of w/c around 1,285 cases are under consular processing. 11,563 (90%) + 1,285 (10%) = 12,848.


    Backlog AOS cases for EB3 Phils:
    Nov. 2006 = 352
    Dec. 2006 = 261
    full 2007 = 2,557
    full 2008 = 29
    full 2009 = 8
    -------
    3,207


    If EB3 Phils should get 7% (around 9,800 visas), shouldn't the cutoff dates for EB3 Phils. be able to reach at least around Nov./Dec. 2006 to Jan. 2007 for this fiscal year?

    And if 25% of AOS cases (2,891) will be denied, wouldn't EB3 Phils be close to becoming current since AOS backlog from 2007-2009 is very low?

    Thanks in advance.
     
  4. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    The unused numbers don't really get "assigned" to China and India. Rather, the restriction on applicants born in China and India is temporarily removed (as long as there are unused numbers) and they can apply just like any other EB2 applicants. Historically, about 25,000 applicants from single state limited countries have the restriction temporarily removed due to the availability of unused numbers.
     
  5. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I have no doubt that the CIS numbers include dependents. They are counting applications, not principal applicants.
     
  6. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I don't know what you are talking about. As far as I know, nothing has been considered or voted upon yet. There is no way to know what may or may not be considered at the last minute.
     
  7. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Your calculation does not take into account visas to be allocated to EB1 and EB2, which add another 584 AOS cases to the mix. Also, I suspect that the AOS/CP ration for the Philippines is very different, more likely 60-40 or even 50-50 due to the fact that it is much harder for citizens of the Philippines who immigrate in EB3 to get nonimmigrant visas.
     
  8. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Given what we have from the CIS, I thought I would take a look at historic visa issuance patterns. This is what I found for China and India for the last four reported fiscal years (2005 – 2008):

    2008

    First
    Second
    Third

    China
    5,602
    6,964
    1,982

    India
    5,327
    14,818
    3,576





    2007





    China
    2,982
    6,797
    3,580

    India
    2,855
    6,203
    17,795





    2006
    China
    3,281
    3,347
    2,477

    India
    3,156
    3,720
    3,181





    2005





    China
    6,422
    9,346
    4,761

    India
    6,336
    16,687
    23,250

    [FONT=&quot]It is important to note that it was in fiscal year 2008 that the Visa Office switched over and began allocating unused EB2 visas to China and India EB2, rather than letting them fall down to worldwide EB3 and then allowing the fall across to China and India.[/FONT]
     
  9. Brightsider

    Brightsider Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    My bad for trying to depend on half-baked knowledge. While the Green card journey has enriched my legal knowledge, I realize that I should not consider myself an expert and dish out opinions. Sorry about that, and I am sure you must have had a good laugh at my ignorant spouting.

    Ron, that is why we need knowledgeable and empathetic guys like you.
    Carry on the good work!
     
  10. Pooreb3row

    Pooreb3row Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hi RON,
    Does this mean that when EB-2 India will be down to 25000(it is 47,728) after using the unused EB1 and EB-2 visas from WW the country limit will be enforced and no unused visa will be allocated to India ?
    And as China has 19933 EB-2 applications pending, single state restriction will be applied to CHINA and no unused visa from WW will be allocated to CHINA EB2.

    Your comment is highly appreciated.
     
  11. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    The four year (2005 -2008) average for India is about 26,700 EB visas annually. This has been pretty consistent. There was one fat year (2005) and one lean year (2006). Since then, things seem to have stabilized.

    Something that you have to keep in mind is that unused visas are not allocated to China and India. Rather, Chinese and Indian applicants are no longer constrained by the 7% per country limit. This is a huge difference.
     
  12. mamasud91

    mamasud91 Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Thanks, Ron.
    So, WW EB-3 gets an annual share of 40040- 4*2800=28840
    A 90-10 split would give the AOS applicants 90% of 28840= 26000 visas
    And 25% denial would move the pending apps up to 125% of 26000= 32500 (somewhere between Jan and Feb 2006)

    Now, because the Other Workers that are filing for AOS are very few in numbers, (approximately 500 with PD before 2006) and they are part of the same EB3 category, and thus slowed by the heaviness of old PDs of other apps, it should be safe to assume that they will not slug the WW EB3 category.

    Is this assumption incorrect, Ron? or do the OW category actually takes away all 5000 visas from WW's petty 26000?
     
  13. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    There are enough "other workers" with old priority dates to fully use the 5,000 limit each year. The vast majority of them are ineligible for adjustment of status and are carried on the books of US consular posts overseas. Don't take the CIS numbers as representative of the group of AOS applicants as a whole. For example, China has a disproportionately large percentage of EB3 applicants who will apply through consular processing. The CIS numbers for China EB3 are deceptively small.
     
  14. smvijay

    smvijay Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I am assuming the initial allocation of visas in the 1st quarter for EB2 I will be 40000*0.07/4= about 700 visas. Whether the allocation is for one quarter (700) or the entire year quota (about 2800), they will get over in a month or two as we have lots of pre-adjudicated cases.

    Question 1: If the 2800 visas for EB2 I gets over in oct or nov, will it become U till december?

    Question 2: If the 2800 visas get over in the 1st quarter, and if the EB2 WW demand is well below the limit for 1st quarter (40000-2*2800)/4=8600 visas, will the limit for EB2 I and C for rest of the year removed? If that happens, then we will have about 28k-30k visas for all EB2 for rest of year.

    Ron, please help me understand here. Thanks.
     
  15. Pooreb3row

    Pooreb3row Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron,
    Do you have the avg Visa used in previous years by the other three oversubscribed(China, Mexico and Phil) countries ? If you have this data could you please post this .
    Thanks
     
  16. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    The law prohibits the issuance of more than 27% of the annual quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters.
     
  17. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I'll get the information for Mexico and the Philippines and post it shortly. I've already posted the data for China and India.
     
  18. crystalroof

    crystalroof Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron,

    As you have mentioned, the visa numbers used by USCIS is only part of the equation, and we don't know for sure whether the data tables for pending cases released by USCIS is accurate or not. However, to accurately estimate the total pending cases, we also need to know the pending cases at DOS (Consular processing). But I don't recall DOS has ever released information regarding the cases pending at the overseas consulates. No one has ever pushed DOS to release their numbers?
     
  19. Pooreb3row

    Pooreb3row Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Ron,
    Please post the Rest of the world use of visa also. Though I can estimate it from subtracting the total of big 4 but in some years USCIS approved less and in some years it used more than 140000.
     
  20. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    The DOS does not release this information because it is very hard to compile. They probably have the information for those people who have paid their fee bills, but that could be a minority of people who are eligible for CP.
     

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