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USCIS pending 485 numbers

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by srinu_chirala, Sep 23, 2009.

  1. srinu_chirala

    srinu_chirala Member

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  2. guchi472000

    guchi472000 Junior Member

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  3. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    For those of you who have not yet seen this information, here are the links:

    The actual report can be found here.
    The Q&A can be found here.

    Many, many people wrote in with this same information. I want to thank all of you for sharing this information. I deleted all but the first post in this thread because they all said the same thing.

    One anomaly that sharp-eyed Rizwan spotted is the data for worldwide cases. If you look at worldwide EB3 for the years 2008 and 2009, you will see a total of 418 cases on file. If this chart is supposed to represent cases with priority dates from the years shown, how were these applicants able to file when their priority dates were not current?
     
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  4. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hi Ron,

    EB3 World Wide is allocated about 40000 visa per year. Out of this how many does EB4, EB5 and EW categories allocated per year?

    These numbers do not count appliactions at consular posts correct? So this is not true demand for visa numbers.


    Thank you.
     
  5. binu2007

    binu2007 Senior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I think Ron, the calculation shouldbe as follows:

    if the rate at which current application filing continue, EB1 will take only 4050 visas(may be another 1000 more ) meaning 140,000-4050=135950 visas will be spilled over to eb2 and if the rate at which current application filing continue, current pending eb2 =74, 932 meaning 61,018 visas will be spilled to EB3. meaning there will be 90,213 EB3 applications left without appproval at the end of this year.

    50% of all the EB3 will be approved towards end of 2010........!!!!!!! and EB2 will be current ??????

    Thanks Please clarify. If this calculation is right or not???
     
  6. smvijay

    smvijay Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Same anomaly for EB2 -India. There are 485 filings in 2008 and 2009. I have a PD from Aug 2007 and unable to file till this day. How is that possible? Are they pushing the applications in through some other means?
     
  7. binu2007

    binu2007 Senior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    It high time that for EB3 cases no one to speak out. or to recapture visas spilled over around 600,000 approximately no one want to recapture because there is no political benefit. or no pressurisation by lobbys in Washinton D.c. This is too much just to get a Green card waiting for decades??? Ron as usual seeking your advice on this. What can be done at the best called all the congress men/congresswomen, senators for the recapture but it seems there is no use.. just writing in the water... Please advise on this.
     
  8. nghiemta18

    nghiemta18 Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Dear Ron:
    The abnormal cases of pending for EB3 cases for 2008-2009 are hapenning across all countries including China, India, Philipines... When you find out what is actually happening, please let us know. Thanks
     
  9. patiently_waiting

    patiently_waiting Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hi Ron,

    These Numbers are based on the Priority dates of the applicants who filed their Labor.

    If you look into the India Category for EB2 and EB3 for July 2007, The Number of Applications filed as per the document are both 1655 and 893 respectively. During July 2007, the dates for EB2-I and EB3-I are current, the USCIS is bombarded with the applications.

    I think the Document shows the applicants who started their green card (labor) process.

    Thanks
     
  10. bandoayan

    bandoayan Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Hi Ron,

    In case of China it shows 19333 EB2 apps pending, but only 6343 EB3 apps are pending. However the current visa bulletin has China EB2 at Mar 05, while EB3 is 2002. Any idea whats going on?
     
  11. adrianar

    adrianar Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I was surprised for the same numbers .... who was able to apply? Probably those with early PD's that were not able to file by then for some reason?
     
  12. thehulkdeals

    thehulkdeals Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Is this new USCIS pending data after the Preadjustication cases or before? I thought that USCIS has used most of the visa availibility for this year. If this pending number is after the Preadjustication cases then this year quota (about 40k) has been exhausted and we will have this pending number. We will have to count it a year late.;mad;

    also is this pending number included the family member or just the main applicant?

    Can someone confirm? Ron?
     
  13. nghiemta18

    nghiemta18 Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    Yeah, I agree with impatiently_waiting, it seems that those numbers are based on the priority date that was recorded based on the LC process. I am praying that it is a true statement; then the chances for EB3 ROW would be better since we only have more than 50K waiting to be process.
     
  14. ssuurrss

    ssuurrss Senior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    why are the links not working anymore??
     
  15. sandy_anand

    sandy_anand Member

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  16. sandy_anand

    sandy_anand Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    A quick calculation on Worldwide (including I + C) numbers---

    EB1 has 4000 pending . Assume another 6000 during current year. That makes total requirement 10000.
    Allocated per year approx 39000 (28% os 140K)

    Available for EB2 -- 29K

    EB4 has 2000 pending . Add another 1000 for current year making it 3000
    Allocated 9800 (7 % of 140K)

    Available 6800

    EB5 has 66 pending . Add another 40 to make it around 100
    Allocated -- 9800

    Available -- 9700

    So total available for EB2 will be 39K( of EB2) + 29 K (EB1) + 6.8K (EB4) + 9.7K (EB5) == 84.5K
    Pending EB2 -- 74K

    Given that not too many EB2 140 are being filed lately, it is possible EB2 will be current for all by end of fiscal year.

    However a caveat would be the 15% of quota that is used by consular processing. So if effect the total available would be 140000 - 15% = 119,000 EB visas.

    Is anyting wrong with this picture?

    Credit to krishmunn in IV for the analysis.
     
  17. patiently_waiting

    patiently_waiting Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    By looking into the document again I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated August 25, 2009) , We can easily say that it is based on Priority date.

    USCIS introduced PERM process on 28 March 2005. So only you will see lot of peoples filed in regular labor process to avoid PERM processing. For EB2-I, the doc says 3341 and For Eb3-I, the doc says 3677.
     
  18. Pooreb3row

    Pooreb3row Junior Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    The link to the PDF document of I-485 inventory is not working. Do anyone has any guess what they are doing ?
     
  19. patiently_waiting

    patiently_waiting Member

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers


    Use this link to go there.

    Thanks
     
  20. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: USCIS pending 485 numbers

    I have some serious reservations about the accuracy of the CIS numbers. They have a history of manipulating figures to make themselves look better. For example, they will redefine a term in such a way that the numbers shown in a particular category no longer include numbers that were formerly there. In this regard,they are supremely dishonest.

    If we want to take these numbers at face value, however, it is important to go back and review a few basics. Most people are going to try to calculate how many people are in line ahead of them, and then apply the known supply of visa numbers to come up with a quick and dirty estimate of how long they have to wait. Before doing this, there are a couple of things that you need to know.

    First, the backlog is not what is shown by these numbers. The figures the CIS has released show what they purport to be their pending backlog of EB AOS cases. Even if these numbers include every EB AOS case filed and still pending, they do not include:

    1. Cases pending at the NVC, and
    2. Cases that have not yet been filed (people who missed the 2007 filing window and others with approved PERMs or I-140s who have not yet filed).
    Second, visa availability is not what you think it is. Let's review the basics. The overall quota is 140,000 per year. Of this, first, second, and third preference each get 28.6%, plus all unused numbers that fall down from higher preferences. This comes out to a guaranteed total of 40,040 for each preference.

    The law limits the issuance of more than 7% of the worldwide quota to people born in any one country. This is known as the single state limit. This means that no one country (i.e., China, India, Mexico, the Philippines) may use more than 9,800 visas in any one year.

    Within the single state limit, the same percentage allocations apply. That is, first, second, and third preference are each guaranteed 28.6% of the 9,800 visas allocated. This works our to 2,803 visas guaranteed to each of the first three preference categories. Of course, unused visas in a higher category fall down into the lower categories.

    Most people look at the third preference category and assume that there will be 40,040 visas available. They are correct, but not in the way that they think. Initially, we have to allow for up to 5,000 visas to be given to the "other worker" category if applicants in that category have qualifying priority dates.

    Next, we have to account for the numbers that will be used by the single state limited countries. There are four such countries (China, India, Mexico, the Philippines) and the can draw up to 2,903 visas each from this pool. That is a total of 11,212. For priority dates earlier than 2001, these numbers are insignificant. From that date forward, however, you need to subtract 16,212 from the overall 40,040. This leave 23,828 available for worldwide EB3 backlog reduction.
     

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