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The Problem With Trying To Make Cutoff Date Calculations

Discussion in 'Visa quota and cutoff date issues' started by Ron Gotcher, Aug 24, 2015.

  1. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Many people, myself included, have at one time or another expended a great deal of time and effort trying to make sense of the available data in order come up with some kind of reliable cutoff date predictor. Right now, that goal is impossible to achieve. The problem is that the available data is both incomplete and unreliable.

    At a minimum, to put together a cutoff date predictor that is even semi-reliable, one would need all of the following:
    1. The total number of visas available in the quota for the current year. For the EB quota, this can vary between the statutory minimum of 140,000, and as many as 155,000 if family based visas are unused.
    2. The actual number of approved I-140 petitions, their priority dates, preference classifications, and countries of charge.
    3. The actual number of dependents who will accompany or follow to join the I-140 principals.
    4. The actual number of I-140s revoked for fraud or mistake.
    5. The actual number of I-140s in different preference categories, held by the same beneficiary.
    In addition to all of this, one would need to know the figure the State Department uses to estimate the numbers of people who will either abandon their applications, or otherwise fail to show up for their interviews abroad. Finally, one would need to know the current denial rate for I-140 based adjustment of status applications.

    If we ever obtain all of this information, then it will become quite easy to predict cutoff date movement. Until then, it is a waste of time and energy to even try.
     
  2. agulv

    agulv Guru

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    Good post Ron.
     
  3. Kamakazee

    Kamakazee Super Moderator

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    I think another data which we will need is the porting numbers. Even DOS does not have it, I am guessing by now they simply go by trending percentages. Unless that number is accurately gathered, they will always be double counted.
     
  4. allswell

    allswell Guru

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    and i feel they intentionally double count it.....USCIS/DHS enjoy dark comedy
     
  5. DonDraper

    DonDraper Guru

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    Would a lawsuit be effective to get USCIS to release i-140 data. What are the options ?
     
  6. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Supposedly, they have been ordered to release this data as part of the new Visa Bulletin transparency effort.
     

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