Discussion in 'Visa quota and cutoff date issues' started by mar212011, Aug 12, 2015.
EB2I - 01JAN06
How did this happen we are going back again
It is the end of the fiscal year and they are running out of visas. This is a good thing in that it means fewer visas will be wasted.
IMHO.. the people who are involved in cut off dates.. have no idea of what the visa numbers are .. its basically a best guesstimate of what they think is the number remaining. Its not their fault tat they don't have the data to be accurate.. but I think the reason for retro in September is USCIS has to send out letters for H1b approvals for October.. now that's not a lots of work but for US center for incompetence and sluggishness .. its like climbing Everest.. so .. I hope they think and know that few visas are wasted.. but I doubt they have a clue..
I agree, however it's a big set back for folks who already had EAD & were waiting to get current to get their GCs. Ron, do you think the EB-2 dates will start moving from the first month of the next fiscal year which will be October Bulletin that will be released in September ?
I know it's too early to predict but just wanted to know your opinion.
Ron, how much has changed in the counting, this below only shows maybe 1300 got issued from apr to jul, thats it for india?
the new 485 inventory ,
7/20 - shows 2488 EB2 I
the last inventory 04/21 - 3737 - EB2I
Please forget about those inventory numbers. They are about as accurate as a horoscope. I think that things will return to normal in October and we will see steady movement.
Ok, just had some hope if they had changed the counting and reporting. But i see your point
When the numbers are fiction, it doesn't matter. I've been told by people in government who have access to solid data that the numbers released by the USCIS are a running joke.
Should we be expecting DOS to kick off the year (next month's bulletin) by bringing in changes to the VB which reflects clear projection of dates, or even doing some kind of "reconciliation" which might result in dates moving significantly forward?
DOS probably got the number correct .. once they got the word from WH.. that please do your job properly.. and fix the VB.. so now they have numbers .. and hence the retro.. how they assign numbers for next year is still a mystery and people from a specific organizations are proposing tat numbers will allocated in start of year so they dates will significantly move in Oct.. but they have been wrong all the time.. so I suggest not to take them seriously.....
The dates will def move forward in Oct - no question about that. The real question is by 'how much', i dont expect unrealistic movement but in FY 2016, we go till 2009, its another year lost
Ron are you saying if these number are fiction means they are fake?
Fiction and fake are different my friend. Fiction is something that doesnt exist or something eludes or could be called as a myth too..fake refers to pretention that exists but not the one that should exist...hope i was clear
From USCIS's standpoint it's easy, retrogress it back by sending out an excel sheet /pdf with retrogressed dates. Then 'move' the dates forward to a date from where they retrogressed. Do nothing and look busy. At the end, the sum total of significant allocation and +/- movement by the first quarter of 2016 will linger around late 2008 or early 2009. So we are back to square one. They get to do their '1 month move' job per visa bulletin and appear as good boys in front of WH and DHS by saying "Hey look we did everything that you asked for, unfortunately we are bound by the law!"
Fragomen and Cilaw have reported that Oct VB could see dates move forward for eb2i ... pls let us know if you have any information about this
When the FY 2016 immigrant visa quota becomes available on October 1, EB-2 China and India could return to or surpass the dates announced for August 2015 – when China held a cut-off date of December 13, 2013 and India held a date of October 1, 2008. The State Department also indicated in its August visa bulletin that EB-3 China could return to a September 2011 cut-off date for professional and skilled workers and a January 2006 cut-off date for other workers in the new fiscal year.
It is our expectation that once the new fiscal year begins with the October 2015 Visa Bulletin the cutoff dates for EB-2 India and China will return to their July and August 2015 levels (approximately).
Dates will def move, but if the movement for entire FY 2016 doesnt go past 2009 or 2010 - its of no use
What I'm saying is that within the government, it is pretty well known that the USCIS numbers are fabricated and do not reflect the real stockpiles.
THen why is noone questioning them Ron? If its a matter of months, its OK, but years - it changes lives so much that it can never be regained.
Very unfair. I doubt if they would sit on this issue if it was any other country that is backlogged this badly.
Other agencies have given up on them. The new White House initiative should make them come clean, however.
Do you have any further input regarding FY16 EB2 - I PD?
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