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Latest Info From Charlie Oppenheim

Discussion in 'Visa quota and cutoff date issues' started by Ron Gotcher, Apr 20, 2015.

  1. jdoe99

    jdoe99 Well-Known Member

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    With all these agencies, who knows? But since it is an official annual report, I have confidence in it. I wish Ron would come in here and set some things straight :)
     
  2. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    that is why charlie said that the ROW demand doubled.
     
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  3. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Since the dates retrogressed. I suspect many people who had I-140 approved already changed jobs and file for I-140 again.
     
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  4. righttolive

    righttolive Member

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    Dates retrogressed???
     
  5. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    If someone is eligible for Schedule A, then they can file an EB3 I-140 directly. As for the reports, I don't trust anything from the USCIS. I've seen their numbers double overnight, then get reduced dramatically, only to shoot up again within the space of a few months.
     
  6. DonDraper

    DonDraper Guru

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    Ron,

    Do you know what the whole issue with EB-3 phillipines is ? How is that there is a huge surge suddenly ?
     
  7. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    If I had to guess, it would be that Schedule A health care workers who established priority dates a long time ago lost their job offers. Now that EB3P is moving a bit, more and more people are getting new job offers, filing new I-140s, and recapturing their ancient priority dates.
     
  8. Chicagosky2011

    Chicagosky2011 New Member

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    I have been looking at the Family preference based category as an example to understand how the visas are allocated and cut off dates decided. For example for F2B category what I see is the PD is in 2009. Based on the criteria, the category gets 23% of 114K visas given to F2 category. Each country then has a 7% cap - basically meaning a country can get maximum of 1.8K visas in a year. why is it then that countries like India which are not in the top oversubscribed category (Per Nov 2014 wait list) are at stuck at 2009? When I look at # of F2B visas issued to India in FY14 it says 103 which is much less than the available of 1838 under cap. Am I missing something in how the # of visa under categories are calculated?
     
  9. alpha0

    alpha0 Guru

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    Once govt agency figures that out, they will let us know (which may never happen)!
     
  10. bez

    bez New Member

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    Hi Ron,

    Saw this on Oh Law today:
    • According to the AILA, the following is predicted by the Visa Office:
      • India EB-2: The best scenario of previous prediction is about 8 months per month, but better scenario is now predicted movement ahead from 4 months to 6 months per month. There is a caveat to this prediction. The volume of EB-3 upgradeing to EB-2 appears to rise, which will affect movement of EB-2 for India beginning from around early mid-2016.
      • EB-3 worldwide: It has been moving very rapidly lately but due to the growing demand, the cut-off date may move slow down from here on.
      • EB-5: Unlikely previous alert, it now states that DOS is scheduling visa appointments persuant to the Continuing Resolution and predicted enactment of Omnibums Appropriation Legislation for 2016.
    I wonder if you have any prediction on EB2/3 for China from AILA?
     
  11. speedracer

    speedracer Guru

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    how would they predict the numbers if the can't even count the numbers they issued last year?
     
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  12. mar212011

    mar212011 Well Regarded Member

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    It takes months to figure out 8 is more than 6 - so reduced the "prediction"
     

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