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Latest Info From Charlie Oppenheim

Discussion in 'Visa quota and cutoff date issues' started by Ron Gotcher, Apr 20, 2015.

  1. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    I don't know. If I had to speculate, I'd say that it could be that people with recent priority dates didn't expect things to move this quickly and haven't followed up with their applications.
     
  2. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Did anyone from AILA ask Oppenheim about Visa Recapture / Reinterpretation ?
     
  3. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    If they did, he didn't comment.
     
  4. bez

    bez New Member

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    Ron,

    From Oh Law:
    06/15/2015: EB-2 India Visa Bulletin Prediction by Oppenheim of DOS
    • AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim, Unexpectedly, during the past few months, the EB-2 demand for worldwide increased more than doubled, and therefore the EB-2 India cut-off date had to hold steady in July 2015. Should this trend continues, Oppenheim predicts that EB-2 India may not move forward duing August and September 2015. Ouch!

    I wonder if Charlie said anything about other categories (e.g. EB-2 China) wrt August and September?
     
  5. msr

    msr Member

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    Charlie anticipates continuing forward movement in EB-2 China, but at a slower pace through this fiscal year.

    Here are some of the highlights from this month's liaison meeting with Charlie Oppenheim:

    • Employment-Based First and Second Preference Categories. EB-1 and EB-2 worldwide is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future. Charlie anticipates continuing forward movement in EB-2 China, but at a slower pace through this fiscal year. As a result of the advancement of EB-2 India earlier this year, advancement in this category is expected to slow as we approach the end of the fiscal year, primarily due to EB-3 upgrades. Unexpectedly, demand for EB-2 worldwide has more than doubled over the past few months, causing the EB-2 India cut-off date to hold steady in July. Unless there is a significant decline in EB-2 worldwide demand, Charlie does not anticipate any forward movement in EB-2 India for the rest of this fiscal year.
    • Employment-Based Third Preference. Charlie expects EB-3 worldwide to reach the summer of 2015 by the end of this fiscal year and expects that the cut-off date will hold steady for some time before deciding whether some other type of corrective action is required for the next fiscal year. The EB-3 China cut-off date is expected to remain the same through the rest of the fiscal year. EB-3 India is expected to advance by one to two weeks. EB-3 Mexico will continue to follow EB-3 worldwide.
      One of the most dramatic actions for July is that the EB-3 Philippines and "other worker" categories will become unavailable, and will likely remain so through this fiscal year.
    • QUESTION 1: Because the worldwide EB-3 category has advanced so rapidly since March 2015, is there any indication when corrective action may be required?

      ANSWER: I believe that the initial corrective action will begin no later than October, and that will be holding the cut-off date steady for several months. I estimate that it takes at least five months from the day an applicant files their adjustment application until USCIS has finalized all required processing and requests a number. Therefore, I will not see the impact of the May cut-off date movement until October, June movement until November, etc.

      It is extremely hard to predict how quickly the level of demand would start to exceed my monthly targets for FY2016 number use. Should the level of demand begin to exceed the targeted level, then further corrective action would be considered.
     
  6. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    I could be be completely wrong. I think USCIS is trying to minimize the ROW carryover to next fiscal. For the past several years The carryover has been at least 8K.

    According to Oct I-485 pending inventory ROW carryover from FY 14 to FY 15 is 15K. Assumming there were 15 K new applicants this year the total ROW demand is around 30K + EB2 China 2.8K. This is the reason why dates are not moving this year.

    IF the ROW pending inventory is reduced to something like 2K, EB2I should move by atleast a year in the next fiscal.
     
  7. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Is there any update on FB usage for FY 2015 ? Is any spillover expected ?
     
  8. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Nothing that I'm aware of. There is always a small amount of spillover.
     
  9. Pramod Sarkar

    Pramod Sarkar New Member

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    Ron and more knowledgeable members, I do not understand this – ROW EB3 cutoff is 01 April 2015. Since PERM applications take around 5-6 months to process, who can have a priority date of 01 April 2015? Is there any way to file for AOS in EB3 without a PERM? Please explain.
     
  10. jdoe99

    jdoe99 Well-Known Member

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    In the first 2 quarters USCIS has approved nearly 15K less of EB 485's. They have approved only 47,600 for the first 2 quarters as opposed to 62,353 last year.

    For the FB approval, for the first two quarters this year there have been 106,544 approvals where as for the same quarters last year it was 122,822.

    I haven't looked at the earlier years and speed to which they can ramp up to. If they cannot process all the visas for FB, we should be seeing some large spillovers.
     
  11. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    thanks for the update. I am just praying that we get a huge spillover.
     
  12. jdoe99

    jdoe99 Well-Known Member

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    On a related note, I do not understand the 140 filings data published in the 2015 CISOMB annual report. According to the 140 filings table on page 51, the 140 filings for EB3 has been low for the last few years at approximately 20K, and drops off to 5k and 485 for FY 2013 and 2014. Even factoring in the backlogged countries inability to file 485's, shouldn't the table correspond to the 485's and shouldn't we have seen EB3 spillovers in 10s of thousands to the backlogged countries by now. What am I missing? Could you help me understand the 140 table?
     
  13. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    It appears that more and more EB3 people are porting to Eb2. That is the only inference I can make. I could be wrong.
     
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  14. jdoe99

    jdoe99 Well-Known Member

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    Yup, that I am sure of. But EB3 is turning out to be a mystery. Given such low numbers filed in the last few years, I am surprised that there has not been huge spillovers to I/P.

    This low filing number coupled with low EB3 ROW filings is also why some on Q's forum are predicting a China like situation in the coming years for EB-I where EB3I could overtake EB2I. Reverse porting will be in vogue then.
     
  15. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    If you look at that report , only 2014's numbers have been certified for accuracy.
     
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  16. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Where did you find this information ?
     
  17. jdoe99

    jdoe99 Well-Known Member

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    It doesnt matter much cos this is the CIS report. So its gotta be pretty close. And even then, the 2014 numbers are a shocker.
     
  18. jdoe99

    jdoe99 Well-Known Member

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    On USCIS's data page. My bad for not linking it earlier. Here you go:

    2014

    First 2 quarters of 2015
     
  19. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    thanks.
    Regarding the Ombudsman report, I do not know how accurate those numbers are especially because EB3 numbers have come down so drastically.
     
  20. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    We do not know how much of these immediate and preference relatives is subject to 226K cap
     

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