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Current status of CIR

Discussion in 'Immigration legislation' started by avatar, Sep 19, 2013.

  1. avatar

    avatar Junior Member

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    Ron - The media is all over the place on the current status of CIR. Some say it's dead. Others sound eerily optimistic. What on earth is going on? Do you have any idea what game is being played here?
     
  2. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Finally the GOP Reps have managed to convince GOP establishment that CIR is not necessary for GOP to win back the white house. They are not playing any game but just running out the clock. Only a dozen GOP members are insecure. Even if all the vulnerable GOP reps lose, GOP will still retain house majority in 2014. The only issue is if GOP loses the house (which is a remote possibilty) in 2014, then dems might push an even more liberal legislation through both houses and it might get filibustered in the senate. In effect nothing will happen.
     
  3. mgfag2000

    mgfag2000 Member

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    What irks me the most is that the Reps. from the gang of seven backed out because somehow they are pissed that they will not be able to defund Obamacare.....this is just plain ridiculous....I think Obama made the biggest mistake by not bringing up immigration in his first year in office. The Oh law firm summed it up today in the best possible manner. October will be crucial, will find out if the Reps will actually bring up the piecemeal bills, go into conference and give the illegals just the legal probationary status(naturalized thru the EB/FB route) and if this compromise will indeed pass both the House and importantly the Senate.
     
  4. manixium

    manixium Super Moderator

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    Even if the piecemeal approach passes, what's the point? The bill they have increases the H1B quota but 2 fold with no corresponding increase in the GC quota, ensuring that this situation will last forever (and now everyone will be affected by it because the per-country cap is going away)

    In any case, Ron, what's the best case timeline in case this piecemeal approach works? i.e.,

    1. Passage of the bills in the house
    2. Hammering out the compromise in the judiciary committee
    3. Re-passing the bill in both chambers

    Can it even happen this year (best case scenario)
     
  5. sagard

    sagard Member

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  6. Senram

    Senram Member

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    Looks like some bills will be passed in house. If you think positively some progress is there in house which is nice thing and eventually a bill may be passed sooner or later. If you think negatively house will pass a bill without automatic citizenship and that will not be accepted by Senate. If Senate and house are strong on their views house will decline the conference committee or conference committee will not reach any compromise. I think if they are serious the process will continue in 2014. If not every thing will be stopped in Oct or Nov
     
  7. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    With the Shutdown CIR is officially dead.
     
  8. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Nothing is officially dead until the Congressional term expires. I can think of as many arguments in favor of the shutdown making CIR more likely as I can that it makes it less likely. I've lived through 17 of these and one thing is very clear: the party that is unified wins and the party that is in disarray loses. Right now, it is looking like the Democrats are going to win and the Republicans are going to lose this fight. That being the case, Boehner may decide that he needs a "win" and can do that by bringing S.744 to the floor for a vote. I think that the 45 Tea Party members of the Republican caucus are going to see their influence reduced substantially when this fight is over.
     
  9. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    May be I should have used the term "pseudo-officially dead". Boehner doesn't look like a person who wants a legislative win. In Fact, he has been categorical about it. Couple of months back he asked the media to judge the Congress by how many laws it repeals.

    IMHO, I think the they have used the shutdown to kill CIR. It has given them an opportunity to nuke CIR without opposing it.

    Now they can blame Dems for not allowing the Govt to run.
     
  10. hello

    hello Junior Member

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    If R's lost shutdown fight and don't bring CIR.They will loose House and few Senate seats(they don't want that).After Oct 17th,we"ll see immigration bill:)
     
  11. mgfag2000

    mgfag2000 Member

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  12. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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  13. mgfag2000

    mgfag2000 Member

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    I personally think this is the best compromise plan available. Boehner and Co. will not bring the Senate CIR to the floor for voting. This latest gimmick by Pelosi and Co. is going nowhere. So that leaves us with what Goodlatte has proposed. The illegals get immediate legal status. They can come out , work, pay taxes etc. strengthen the border, implement E-verify so that the incentive to be here illegally is out of the equation. The businesses, hopefully, will have access to labour (high and low skill). Its a win win for everyone.
     
  14. mgfag2000

    mgfag2000 Member

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    To add to the above, the people who have legal status will be allowed to apply for PR via the EB & FB routes and that way they dont have to wait for 13 years to get a GC. Ofcourse, for that to happn , the existing backlogs will have to be eliminated which means more visas being made available , recapture of lost visas and things like removing dependents from quota
     
  15. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Everyone understands that Goodlatte's proposal is the best that can pass the house, but the problem is neither Goodlatte nor Boehner are working on it.
    Pelosi's politiking isn't going to go down well with hispanics this time. This is a strategy that has failed in the past and will never succeed.
     
  16. sigler

    sigler Junior Member

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    http://politi.co/19rGJbA The question is, what will they vote on? Any chance they might bring the Senate bill up for a vote?
     
  17. binu2007

    binu2007 Senior Member

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    Thought I will write this much.

    1. Politicians & money minded attorneys never want to solve the immigration issue, Fees for attorneys, lobbying money for Politicians.

    2. The President do not want to solve it for his own party. This is the issue for Latino votes blaming always the other party.

    3. The ping pong game is going on for country's financial issues like debt ceiling and budgets.

    4. Every year this people will do last minute touchups which immigration is not a concern.

    5. EB3-India applicants they treat them as cash cows and beating from all sides. ALIA and attorneys will never allow to solve the issue of backlog.

    6. Dream of making 11 millions Legal is never going to happen.

    7. In between some Desi organizations bribed USCIS and made the spillover law interpretation to EB2s favour so all the spillover goes to EB2 India and a family who is in US from 2003 who is on EB3 India still waiting but a family came in EB2 on 2008 gets green cards ---Lot of people may not like this truth. And EB2 Indians become permanent employees and interview other senior guys who is on EB3-India. This is playing havoc in the community. How can USCIS change spillover law intrepretation without congress or senate approval?? (no offence to any of the EB2 India people!)

    Ultimately do not waste the time expecting legislative relief and do not waste time thinking that there will be administrative fix. Whoever can port should port.

    Legals has been made political hostages for past 7 years by all political parties now democratic party as a bargain to 11 million illegals. This fools don't understand we pay tax as good as any other citizens.

    Attorney's (not all) are the greatest money suckers and ultimately they become senators and congressman.

    THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE IS NEVER GOING TO SOLVE BY LEGISLATION. if It happens. I will shave my head! and mustache...
     
  18. s_gan

    s_gan Super Moderator

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    Yep, there is no political incentive to have this issue resolved.
     
  19. hello

    hello Junior Member

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    Ofcourse there is political incentive for Republicans if they take it off the table so no body will talk about it and political incentive for Democrats is to keep it on the table so they can play games and win Prsidential election again.
     
  20. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    There are more than 300 votes in the House for S.744, according to whip counts. If it were brought to the floor, it would pass easily. The Republican caucus wants to take a more piecemeal approach, passing individual immigration bills. The Senate leadership has said that this approach is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. Some House Republicans have expressed concern that if they pass anything at all, and the bill goes to conference, the Senate and the House majority will modify the legislation to make it look like S.744 and that's what will be passed.

    To be sure, it is a minority of House members that are holding up passage of immigration reform legislation.

    The question is whether the Speaker will allow a vote on S.744 or will let the piecemeal process play out. If he allows individual bills, will he then appoint or refuse conferees if the Senate passes one of those bills in a different form?
     

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