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Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by Ron Gotcher, Jun 11, 2009.

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  1. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Ron,

    Have you seen a lot of EB3 approvals in Oct and Nov?


     
  2. baba2s

    baba2s Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hey SeanD, from one of the IV post, EB3 maximum visa quota for first quarter has been utilized by CP and no visa# has been left for rest of nov and dec 09.
     
  3. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I saw the post you are talking about, it looked like a very generic reply by USCIS. The question is where are the evidence of approvals for EB3? I know there are a lot of EB2 approvals this is evident when we look at trakkit data.

    It is possible that USCIS has already assigned visa numbers to a lot of EB3 cases but are not giving the final approval. Who knows... maybe they are waiting to clear EB2 first...

    But purely looking at trakkit data I cannot see anything really happening on EB3 side.

     
  4. baba2s

    baba2s Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    you may be right... BUT
    As per trackitt approval and CP backlog from Ron's post..
    Total EB2 Approval (both Pri/Dep) for first quarter around 360
    Total EB3 Approvals(both pri/dep) for first quarter around 38..
    Total EB2 CP backlog 6,300
    Total EB3 CP backlog 103,000

    so i think CP backlog is causing very less EB3 approvals on Trackitt. Looks like lot of CP backlog are very old PD thats the reason EB3-ROW is far behind
     
  5. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: New DOS data

    Ron,

    So if these cases has older PDs these 24K cases should not effect VB date movement for EB3 WW correct? Most of the cases are for countries with single state limits. Only addition is South Korea.

    Thanks for the info......


     
  6. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I don't think there are that many OLDER EB3 WW CP cases, EB3 WW was in year 2005 (VB) till April of 2009. So most of the CP cases are from Late 2005 to 2009... Just my opinion.

    According to Ron, DOS process cases pretty fast through the CP system... I am sure there are older cases out there can't be that many...


     
  7. bengaluru

    bengaluru Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    My case is Eb3-India with a PD of Mar 11 2002....with the release of the above report from DOS, what is the outlook? When can I expect the dates to move inot Mar 2002?
     
  8. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hi,

    I have not looked at the information for India EB3. There is a good article on Ron's blog about all visa backlog..

    http://imminfo.com/Blog/articles.php?art_id=100&start=1

    By looking at the data we got today it looks like there are a lot of cases for Phillipines, India and China... WW eb3 relatively is low... but we don't know the PD information. Without that the data is not that useful when you are thinking about the short term VB date movement. Long term, we are now seeing the picture better...

     
  9. bengaluru

    bengaluru Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Ron,
    Can you thorw anymore insight into my particular situation? I guess my doubt is, is it worth switching to EB2 now? Or am I just better off waiting this over?
     
  10. bengaluru

    bengaluru Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Ron,
    Can you throw anymore insight into my particular situation? I guess my doubt is, is it worth switching to EB2 now? Or am I just better off waiting this over in EB3?
     
  11. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I think that you are better off switching to EB2. While Worldwide EB3 is expect to start moving forward shortly, EB3 for India is going to remain mired at around 2002 for several more years.
     
  12. El_Guapo

    El_Guapo Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I've seen the pending numbers from NVC and DOS and here's what I infer based on some rough calculations.

    EB1 - All Chargeability areas will be C for the near foreseeable future.

    EB2-ROW will be Current through FY2011, maybe more since we don't have that many PERM approvals in FY2009.

    EB2 - China will advance to late 2006 by end of Sep 2010 since their pending cases is about 5000 for 2006. I am assuming most spillover from EB2-ROW will fall across to India since India has several cases with 2005 PD. China's vertical spillover from EB1 should take care of its 2005, early 2006 PDs along with their regular EB2 quota (2800 approx).

    EB2 - India will advance to about Dec 2005 by end of Sep 2010. This is a pretty optimistic estimate in my opinion. There is a good chance it won't move beyond Sep-Oct 2005. The reason being there are about 8000 pending EB2-I cases until Mar 28 2005 (start of PERM). This is a huge mountain to climb. The vertical spillover for India from EB1 will be very less (~300). The horizontal spillover from EB2-ROW will be in the order of about 6000 since there are significant PERM approvals from FY 2009 that will be filing for AOS this year. I am estimating EB2-ROW to use about 35000 numbers. Now, there are 6000 visas from the FB numbers last year. So the total spillover will be about 12000 this year not considering the vertical spillover from EB1 of individual countries. Most of this will go to EB2-India. Now, the regular EB2-I quota of 2800 will reduce India's backlog to about 6000 until Mar 28 2005. So with the spillover estimate of 12,000, I suppose India EB2 will get past the major hump of pre-PERM labor. The number of PERM applications was significantly less in April, May and June. So the dates will move forward to about JulY 2005. The total PERM cases for 2005 is about 6500. And only about 1500 for India. Taking dependents into account, thats about 3500 AOS applications. So I guess EB2 India will move to late 2005. However, there are about 10% porting from EB2-I to EB2-I. Once this is done, we will have an additional 6000 EB2 applicants with older PD in the queue. This means, EB2 India will most likely stay at about Sep-Oct of 2005.

    EB3-ROW - Will advance to about 2005. Seems there are more CP cases from the latest NVC numbers than we expected. So I don't expect ROW EB2 to move beyond 2004-2005 for sometime to come, perhaps until FY2011 or so.

    EB3-India - This is hopeless. There are no chances of spillover. With 2800 yearly visas and the greater than 15% CP in EB3, this is screwed. I don't see EB3 India moving beyond Jan/Feb 2002 for a very very long time. India EB3 will likely remain in early 2002 for another 3 years and then slowlsy move a few months a year.


    It make sense to say that with the available data, EB2 India and China will see the maximum forward movement? Now whether the spillover happens quarterly or annually will dictate the rapid movement of these dates or if there will be one huge leap in Aug-Sep 2010 with mad rush of approvals. But based on what Ron said in an earlier post, they are seeing regular approvals in EB2 at their office. So I would not be surprised if EB2 India moves to April/May 2005 in January's Bulletin.

    Your thoughts Ron?
     
  13. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I think you pretty much nailed it. The one thing that jumps out at me, however, is the possible double counting. Don't count the EB2 India single state maximum limit and then add the Worldwide EB2 fall across. You have to account for all visas allocated within EB2, and that will include the maximum numbers from India and China. After that, then the fall across occurs.
     
  14. pertune0

    pertune0 Member

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    Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hello Att.Ron

    (I HAVE SOME QUERIES REGARDING EB-# 3 ROW)

    USCIS has provided the pending data what ever it had & NVC now released clear /overall data upto Nov 2009.

    Just one thing missing is approved I-140 waiting to file AOS.

    EB-3 ROW,

    Priority date upto 2007 July was current for 45 days in 2007.
    Priority date upto 2006 March was current for 60 days in 2008.
    Pririty date upto 2005 may was current for 5 months in 2009.

    So most of AOS have been filed & NVC pending might have been cleared accordingly.
    Ron, Can we roughly estimate when PD June/July from EB-3 ROW will be current?
     
  15. pakpimp05

    pakpimp05 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I have a priority date of July 20, 2005 and was wondering same thing. Mr. Ron any insight will be really appreciated!
     
  16. pertune0

    pertune0 Member

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    Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hello Att.Ron

    (I HAVE SOME QUERIES REGARDING EB-# 3 ROW ,PD mid 2006)

    USCIS has provided the pending data what ever it had & NVC now released clear /overall data upto Nov 2009.

    Just one thing missing is approved I-140 waiting to file AOS.

    EB-3 ROW,

    Priority date upto 2007 July was current for 45 days in 2007.
    Priority date upto 2006 March was current for 60 days in 2008.
    Pririty date upto 2005 may was current for 5 months in 2009.

    So most of AOS have been filed & NVC pending might have been cleared accordingly.
    Ron, Can we roughly estimate when PD 2006 June/July from EB-3 ROW will be current?
     
  17. gtz

    gtz Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    without any legislative change, i personally don't belive that EB3-WW PD 2006 will be current within the current FY. i think there is a small chance that Jan/Feb 06 will become current and if it will, it will happen not before May/June 2010...
     
  18. pakpimp05

    pakpimp05 Junior Member

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  19. binu2007

    binu2007 Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hi Ron,

    So all these analysis of visa numbers and data proves that congress have no intention to pass the Beaurocratic delays visa re-capture or CIR on the near future... is there any solace for more than a million EB category people for the coming years?? I agree joblessness and econmy is a factor but they can allow people who are I-140 approved to Pre-register and issue EAD. At least H1B visa holders also are tax payers, without any accountability for that. all political scapegoats!. This is really frustrating and this is an Harrassment towards people who are educated and real contributers to the economy, waiting for your opinion on this.
     
  20. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    There is an error in the initial explanation of the quota. As I read this analysis, they are suggesting that the single state limit is 25,620 - irrespective of whether the visas are issued in family or employment based. This suggests that a country with heavy family based demand, but light employment based demand, could use more than 7% of the EB or FB quota as long as they remained under 25,620 overall. This is wrong. The 7% limit applies independently to FB and EB. A country could have no demand in one area, and enormous demand in the other and the side with the excessive demand would still be limited to 7% of that quota - not 7% of the combined quota.

    Also, I think that their estimates for China and India EB2 are too pessimistic.
     
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