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Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by Ron Gotcher, Jun 11, 2009.

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  1. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    The CIS has said that they have preadjudicated about 155,000 cases. They have given us a spreadsheet that purports to show the number of pending AOS cases, broken down by priority date, country of charge, and preference. That spreadsheet totals about 220,000 cases. Other data on the CIS site (CIS data) puts the total number of pending cases at about 300,000.

    So, what do we have? Well, assuming that all of this data is more or less accurate, we know that there are about 300,000 pending EB AOS cases. Out of that group of 300,000, about 220,000 of them have been sorted and categorized by PD, preference, and country, while the remaining 80,000 havent.

    Out of the group of 220,000, about 155,000 have been preapproved - but we don't know which 155,000. That is, we don't know which categories, countries, and priority dates will be affected by the pre-approvals.

    In other words, we don't know squat.
     
  2. kumark2006eb2

    kumark2006eb2 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Ron,
    see lot of posts predicting the movement of EB2 India due to possble large spillover from EB2-ROW and EB1. Everyone is predicting this because of bad economy. But looking at the data at USCIS website it tells a different story. If you look at the I-485 receipts for Nebraska and Texas (they process mostly employment based catogries. You can check this in processing time sheet), the # of receipts are steady over the last 2 years ( around 9,000 per month for Nebraska and around 5000 for Texas). If that is true that means that # of applications have not gone down. This means he usual spillover of not more than 6000 visa (USCIS has preadjuicated lot of cases and hence chances of spillover are less).

    Am I missing anything?

    Please look at the data below for the receipts for NSC and TSC

    NCS
    ------------------
    Month & Year Receipts
    Oct07 7044
    Nov07 12953
    Dec07 7313
    Jan08 7946
    Feb08 9182
    Mar08 9687
    Apr08 8934
    May08 7675
    Jun08 7610
    Jul08 7229
    Aug08 7416
    Sep08 8147
    Oct08 8327
    Nov08 7086
    Dec08 7446
    Jan09 6122
    Feb09 7581
    Mar09 9113
    Apr09 8283
    May09 8010
    Jun09 9264
    Jul09 10293
    Aug09 9513


    TSC
    --------------
    Month & Year Receipts
    Oct07 15066
    Nov07 5753
    Dec07 5586
    Jan08 5976
    Feb08 5026
    Mar08 6789
    Apr08 8731
    May08 7287
    Jun08 8208
    Jul08 6156
    Aug08 6201
    Sep08 5836
    Oct08 6469
    Nov08 5390
    Dec08 6284
    Jan09 4788
    Feb09 5619
    Mar09 7533
    Apr09 6268
    May09 5842
    Jun09 6159
    Jul09 5732
    Aug09 5449
    The data is from USCIS website. You can download the data in excel format from USCIS website (trends and volume). as mentioned by some that these could all be EB3 or fasmily based. well the data shows the trend. Why suddenly there will be increase in FB or EB3 applications. If you use the same proportion for all applications it means that there are substantial # of filings in EB catogaries.

    Thanks,
    kumar
     
  3. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    You are not missing anything - at least as far as filing are concerned. I agree that filings have not dropped off appreciably. While they have not grown at the rate they were growing prior to the recession, they haven't really declined much either.

    The issue that is hard to quantify relates instead to denials and abandonments. We know that the AOS denial rate is up. The historic 22% denial rate has now increased to something in excess of 25%. We are also hearing of many abandonments - cases where people have simply given up and gone home.

    I don't see the increased rate of denials or the increasing number of abandonments as providing that many more visas, however. I suspect that the "huge wave" of expected spillover is nothing but an illusion.
     
  4. kumark2006eb2

    kumark2006eb2 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Ron,

    Thanks for your information.

    Any estimates for EB2 fiscal year 2010? Moved to END OF 2006 or 2007?


    Thanks,
    kumar
     
  5. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I assume you mean China or India EB2, since worldwide is current and will remain so. You have to remember that fall across numbers from WW are not allocated to a specific country. Rather, they go to those with the oldest priority dates who are otherwise constrained by the single state limit. Since India has more cases with older priority dates, India will get the majority of the fall across numbers.

    Through fiscal year 2005, there are a total of at least 17,835 Indian applicants with AOS cases on file (according to the incomplete CIS numbers). For that same interval, the CIS shows that there are at least 4,284 Chinese applicants. Let's stop here for a moment.

    The regular Chinese EB allocation for EB1 and EB2 should take care of all of those applicants. Unless new applicants pop up with old priority dates, the China EB2 cutoff date should move into 2006 without any difficulty.

    India is another story. Let's use 4,000 as a working number for EB2 visas available under the Indian single state limit (leftover EB1 plus all EB2). That should reduce the India EB2 backlog to less than 14,000. There will be enough fall across EB2 numbers to wipe out that demand. That means that India EB2 should also more into 2006 (at least) by next September.

    The question now becomes how much further will China and India EB2 advance. If we see movement through at least January 2006, then both countries will be at parity. From that point forward, the cutoff dates will slow down.

    China has a CIS reported backlog of 8,581 cases with 2006 priority dates. India has a reported pending AOS backlog of 19.240. That is a combined total of 27,821. We might see a small dent made in that number before September. If so, the cutoff dates might move to early 2006. Don't count on anything more than that. At best, next year (FY2011), the remaining quota will go toward moving China and India EB2 through the end of 2006 or maybe very early 2007.
     
  6. baba2s

    baba2s Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Thank you Ron for your analysis.
    Just want to add that in sep09, EB2-I has thousands of approvals (spillover). If we subtract 6000 from your count... its another 6 month forward move.. wow... Thanks Ron
     
  7. kumark2006eb2

    kumark2006eb2 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Ron,

    If we subtract 6000 EB2-I from your count... its another 6 month forward move?

    Thanks,
    Kumar
     
  8. INDEB2

    INDEB2 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    As far movement for EB-2 India is concerned, once again the missing puzzle is the number of pedning EB-2 ROW PERM applications and how many of them will be approved in the next 6-8 months.

    The EB-2 ROW 485 filings were still high last year because bulk of them got jobs and filed PERM in 07,08. The real slow down in hiring, delays in PERM, increase in denial rates of PERM all started mid- late 2008. Thus EB-2 ROW new 485 applications should dip this year significantly.
     
  9. INDEB2

    INDEB2 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Even of there is just 10,000 spill over hopefully by Sep 2010, EB-2 India should reach mid 2006 at least. Ron, what do you think?
     
  10. ssuurrss

    ssuurrss Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Since my PD is Nov 2001, My question was for the 1327 cases ahead of me under EB3 India. Just wondering...
     
  11. kumark2006eb2

    kumark2006eb2 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Ron,

    If we subtract 6000 EB2-I from your count... its another 6 month forward move?
    Even of there is just 10,000 spill over hopefully by Sep 2010, EB-2 India should reach mid 2006 at least. what do you think?

    Thanks,
    Kumar
     
  12. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    By that time, India will no longer have substantially older PD cases than China. Both India and China will be drawing from the fall across. This will slow down forward movement substantially.

    I have an article half-written on this subject, but I won't be able to publish it in the ImmInfo Blog until after I get back from Rome.
     
  13. Max9292

    Max9292 Junior Member

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  14. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Well guys guess what it is Nov 22 and there are hardly any approvals on trakkit, only 5 for all EB3 including India and China. And we probabbly can't expect too many approvals in the next few days due to holidays... December typically is slow as well..

    So what does this mean....

    Why are we not seeing approvals...

    For all these months we were waiting for visa numbers now we have them but we are still waiting..

    The thing is nobody has answers to these questions but USCIS... we can only speculate

    When I look at the history there was a similar situation not last fiscal year but the year prior to that... VB did not move and then it jumped significantly

    I think this senario is more than probable now... I think Ron wrote extensivley on how low USCIS production results in higher VB date movement...

    I think we will see a significant VB movement for EB3 WW next month...

    Just my opinion.........


     
  15. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    We are seeing a very large number of cases being closed by USCIS. We are getting AOS approvals daily.
     
  16. ssuurrss

    ssuurrss Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Here is what I came up with. So far I did an analysis up till Nov 2001 (My PD). There are totally 1326 cases pending before the end of Nov 2001 on USCIS data. And on trackitt, there are only 96 cases of all the 1326 represented there which is about 7.2%. All in all if I take the approvals on trackitt after August 31 which is 9 cases is representative of the 7.2%, then all in all I think only 125 cases are approved so far under EB3 which could have cleared all cases through the end of december 2000.

    Just my 2 cents.
     
  17. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    New DOS data

    I've just been alerted that the DOS has posted the NVC backlog numbers at http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf The numbers shown there are pretty substantial and higher than the 15% of AOS numbers that we have used as a working figure.
     
  18. baba2s

    baba2s Junior Member

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    Re: New DOS data

    thanks Ron for the report
     
  19. ssuurrss

    ssuurrss Senior Member

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    Re: New DOS data

    Assuming the 20,467 EB3-I backlog shown is not (or is it?) included in the original USCIS backlog report distributed previously, the NYC backlog is 24.6% of the total backlog. Too bad its not broken down by month.

    But with everything I have heard about consular processing, I think all these applications are pretty much the last part 2007??

     
  20. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Those numbers are definitely NOT part of the CIS numbers previously released. For the most part, you may correctly assume that these numbers are for cases with more recent priority dates.
     
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