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Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by Ron Gotcher, Jun 11, 2009.

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  1. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I knew about the 8000 extra visas, lets say EB3 WW gets 2500 of that, that means the VB date probably would move two extra months (that is if USCIS Only approve by priority date and not pick and choose from everywhere). If they do not approve cases from oldest to newst, the VB date would advance into 2006 and even beyond.

    If USCIS comes out and say there is another 30K for EB3 WW tomorrow, the whole situation changes. I just hope this is not the case and there is somehow a good explanation...

    This analysis was done with the data as of now.

    I am waiting for Ron's news letter to find out more on extra visas
     
  2. mamasud91

    mamasud91 Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    The proportion of EB3 WW to Total pending is somewhat 26.4% (62K/234K). If we proportionately divide this extra 80000, WW will have .264*80000=21,200

    So, may be we can assume a grand total of 62K+21K= 83K, with some 2000 spillover, and recalculate.

    Also, a 20% minimum denial rate should be accounted for...in my opinion. Many people in this category either switched to EB-2 or lost their jobs..
     
  3. hopechange

    hopechange Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hi Ron;

    Any update on the numbers from SeanD? Do you think they are actually issuing around 2900 visas for EB3 ROW?

    Thanks
    hopechange
     
  4. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I think his analysis is as valid as that of anyone else here. His assumptions are reasonable and he proceeds logically from those assumptions. The trick, of course, is making valid assumptions and none of us have a patent on that.
     
  5. pertune0

    pertune0 Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

     
  6. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hi Pertune0,

    Yes, I applied the data as we know today, if changes happen I will modify.

    EB3 WW has over 3000 cases stuck in April, these are 245i cases. Some of these cases may not be approved or will be delayed. The result is the VB dates moving up.

    My estimate shows that about 23828 visas will be assigned to EB3 WW. Actual number most likely will be a little bit higer.

    There is a very high concentration of cases starting from Aug of 2005 all the way to 2007. So the VB movement into 2006 will only happen if USCIS does not approve old cases, DOS will be forced to move the VB dates forward. So far I have seen few cases being approved from 2001 in trackkit website. About 50% for the Month of OCT are 2001 PDs. This is not a perfect sample but that is all we have.


    pertune0 [​IMG] vbmenu_register("postmenu_37268", true);
    Member
     
  7. baba2s

    baba2s Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Great analysis SeanD... can you please tell us about EB2-India movement for FY2010?
    Thanks
     
  8. bugs2008

    bugs2008 Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Pls ignore my basic question -

    so, are you saying that potentially, the cases with Aug 2004 PD might be getting adjudicated in January of 2010, irrespective of the country of origin?

    Thanks,
     
  9. gtz

    gtz Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    No I don't think this is what he says. i think he says that he is estimating it to be if your case is EB3 WW...but if you are china or india you are on a different que alltogether
     
  10. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Yes, my analysis is only about EB3 WW. I am not too familier with EB2 I or C to say anything about their movement except EB2 I is far better off than EB3 I.

    Unless USCIS comes out and say there are additional 80K more cases in backlog, EB2 I probably would not retrogress, however the fall accross visas from EB1 and other categories would be less than last year.
     
  11. bugs2008

    bugs2008 Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Thank you, guys..
     
  12. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Something is cooking, I am not seeing that many approvals for EB3 WW on trakkit (only 11 so far for OCT, last years Ave was like 62 for each of the first 4 months). I know trakkit is not a great sample, but that is all we got.

    Last year it was totally different I saw more than double the normal rate of approvals on trakkit.

    Well, if USCIS is not approving and using up visa numbers we may see a really big jump in Dec or Jan VB. Just my opinion.

    Below is what I wrote on another thread about the trackitt data last year. I posted this January of 2009. And my prediction did come true by May the category did become Unavailable. I tried to link the old tread to this but was not able to do it.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Lately I have noticed on the trackitt website a very high number of EB3 ROW approvals. Now, I know that the results from this website is not scientific but that is the only source we have about approvals.

    These are my findings:

    For the fiscal year 2008 total trackitt approvals (EB3 ROW) = 500

    Total visas available for EB3 ROW for this time period = 33000

    So the ratio is (trackitt : Actual) = 1 : 66

    every trackitt entry represents roughly 66 actual approvals

    * So far there are 250 (Oct - Jan) trackitt entries that means (250 * 66 = 16500). This is pretty high.

    * 16500 is half the available quota for the year, and it is used up in just 4 months (Oct - Jan). At the same rate the visa's all visas be used up by end of May.

    As I said before this analysis is based on trackitt data and I am open to your comments now...

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Question for Ron:

    Can USCIS request a visa number for a case not use it by completing/closing the case? Can they just allocate numbers and not approve cases? When do they have to return the visa number back to the pool?
     
  13. baba2s

    baba2s Junior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Agree with you SeanD.. we will see huge jump for EB3-WW in DEc09 VB... looks like USCIS don't have lot pre-adjudicated cases and DOS missed to moved the NOV09 VB ( because of mis communication with USCIS)
     
  14. pertune0

    pertune0 Member

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    Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Hello Sean D:
    * You just publish the data,but you always scare to figure out when the PD will be current,like someone in immigration trakitt(that's just his guess & analysis,based on his logic).

    *Can you publish your analytical figure stating that the PD you supposed current in each quarter/fiscal year??That's just logical guess(nobody mind that)?

    * I remember your post' after May2009 all EB-3 ROW visas would be allocated &it will be U by june based on trakitt approval' that came true........?
     
  15. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    If the CIS does not use up visa numbers, then we will definitely see cutoff dates advance.
     
  16. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    I think I should have been clearer with my question.

    Is there a time limit for USCIS to approve and complete a case after they have requested/obtained a visa number for a case?

    Can they just sit on it for months and months at a time ?


     
  17. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    Excellent question. The answer is no, there is no legal requirement that they close out a case within any specified time. Look at their backlog sheets and note that they have cases still pending from 1997! It is because the CIS has failed to process enough cases in the past that the Visa Office has had to artificially advance cutoff dates in order to close out enough cases to avoid wasting the annual quota.
     
  18. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    pertune0,

    The reason for my post above is the current data on Trackitt. The data is very different to what I saw last year at this time.

    I expected a huge jump in the approvals for OCT, especially since USCIS is sitting on over 190K preadjudicated cases.

    Only thing they have to do it complete these cases. But somehow trackitt data is not reflecting a huge jump in approvals but completely the oppersit.

    Now I may be completely off here....

    Typically when USCIS production is low the result is DOS moving the visa date forward. I am waiting to see if this is the case. We will be able to find out if we see a big move in December VB in a few weeks time.

    Thanks Ron for your answer!!!!!!!!!
     
  19. gtz

    gtz Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    biggest flaw in my mind of this entire system is lack of predictablity!
    did Sean just uncovered a big flaw of the currenct law? Ron, do you belive that by limiting it to 30 or 60 days will put some order to the process? and by order i mean, it will put some transperancy & predictability to what CIS is doing and prevent those huge 'unexplanable' outrages retrogrations?

    or am i too optimistic and it is just not that simple of a fix... :(
     
  20. ssuurrss

    ssuurrss Senior Member

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    Re: Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    So does the above mean that all the pending old cases (1997 to April 2001) already have visa numbers assigned to them (Visa numbers from prior years quota) and they are not dipping into the current quota?
     
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