1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

Discussion in 'General immigration questions' started by Ron Gotcher, Jun 11, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    The other thread ("Invitation to Collaborate") has wandered off topic. I've decided to create a new thread and copy many of the posts from the other thread to this one. The other thread got bogged down by people asking questions not directly related to the issues of gathering and analyzing visa quota data, as well as offering their opinions and comments.

    Those of you who wish to comment may continue to do so in the other thread. I want to keep this thread lean so that we can find the data that we want easily. To this end, I will delete without comment any irrelevant posts - such as "when will my priority date become current?" and "there is no hope for any of us, we should all kill ourselves."

    I want to keep this thread limited to the collection and analysis of visa quota data. All questions pertinent to those issues are germane. Indeed, as we accumulate data, I hope to generate a robust debate as to how to interpret the data.
     
  2. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis

    There is a lot of information floating about on the Internet and elsewhere concerning visa usage and cutoff date movement. I've seen a good deal of it in my travels around the 'net. I think that it might be useful to invite others to post the raw data they have seen so that we can all collaborate on trying to come up with reasonable projections for future movement.

    For example, I've seen numbers that deal with the quantity of pending EB AOS applications on file with the CIS at different times. I also know that the CIS puts out information in their annual report (though it is of suspect validity). At different times, the Visa Office has published data - both as to absolute numbers as well as percentages.

    I will moderate the discussion. I know the statutes inside out. I'm also pretty familiar with the allocation algorithm and I have a pretty good idea as to where to find the raw data. Still, there are gaps in my knowledge, mostly in the area of valid raw data.

    Let's start compiling information where everyone can see it. I'm happy to help others work through the mechanics of the system. We have a lot of bright people in this forum and I'm sure that if we bring our combined talents to bear on the problem, we can come up with a pretty good solution.

    Everyone is welcome to participate. All that I ask is that if there are disagreements, we all keep things civil. With undertakings such as this, there are no absolutely right or absolutely wrong answers. Let's combine our talents and see what we can come up with.

    If enough people are interested, I'll start putting things together and posting shortly.
     
  3. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    I'd like to start by trying to define the actual numbers that we are dealing with. We know what the statute provides. I'll dig out the average spill over from other categories so that we can develop some working numbers for the known availability. We need to get an idea of the actual backlog of India EB2 and EB3 and China EB2 and EB3. Worldwide will fall into place as soon as we nail those numbers down.
     
  4. jc123

    jc123 Member

    Messages:
    49
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    I am with you all the way Ron! I think this is a great idea.

    I have been spending a lot of time lately on this. I hit two big challenges that I can't seem to get past:

    1) The DOL raw data for PERM/LCs certified prior to FY2005 (www.flcdatacenter.com) doesn't include "country of nationality" as a field. I don't know how else you can determine the "inflow" to the queue other than looking at PERM/LCs and assuming what percentage actually get used to apply for I-140.

    2) DOL certifications have no direct or absolute correlation to USCIS preference category. The prevailing wage levels included on the raw data really can't proxy for this.

    Can you help me think of a way to get unstuck with this? Or is there another reliable DOL data source?

    JC
     
  5. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

    Messages:
    394
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    Thanks for starting this very important tread.....

    Ok let me start by asking everyone a questions.

    So far we know that Mr. Charles Oppenheim has given out a number of backlogged cases of 200,000 to 220,000. Out of this number 120,000 is from Indian applicants. Now one discussion should be on figuring out how he came up with this number and if this number is correct.

    Assuming that the 220K backlog number is correct lets try to figure out the rest.

    Total Backlogged = 220,000

    ................India = (120,000)
    ======================
    ...........Subtotal = 100,000

    ======================
    ...............China = (?)

    ...............Mexico = (?)

    ...............Philippines = (?)

    ======================
    Subtotal = EB3 WW
    ======================




    If we figure these numbers we get the total EB3 WW number. Since EB1 and EB2 are not retrogressed the total backlogged cases left would be for EB3.

    Also an important point, if the EB3 backlog is substantially below about 35,000. Next year there is a possibility for the category for be current and even a slight chance of over flow in the last QTR.

    What do you think?
     
  6. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

    Messages:
    394
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    Here are the data from the link above.

    Pending EB applications from INDIA


    TSCNSC TOTALE1103017232753E2220292968851717E3347843605470838EW16999268E56 6NIW225 225SD29 29SR37 37 Total5830967564125873
     
  7. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    This is all great information. We are going to need to reconcile it with the information I got last week at the AILA conference. For example, I was told explicitly that they have approved enough cases to fill this year's EB quota (140,000) and that they have pre-approved as many as 120,000 to be applied against next years quota. They also said that these adjudications pretty much emptied the cupboard.

    The table immediately above shows approximately 120,000 pending cases from India alone. Based on what we know of the relative proportions of the backlog, this would mean that there are another 80,000 cases from China and about 35,000 worldwide cases. Somehow, we need to reconcile this data.
     
  8. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

    Messages:
    394
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    So lets plug the 80k for China in the calculation:

    Total Backlogged = 220,000

    ................India = (120,000)
    ======================
    ...........Subtotal = 100,000

    ======================
    ...............China = (80,000)

    ...............Mexico = (?)

    ...............Philippines = (?)

    ======================
    Subtotal = EB3 WW = 20,000
    ======================

    So the EB3 WW backlog is only 20,000? Where did you get the 35,000 Ron?

    What about Mexico and Philippines?
     
  9. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    Taking a look at overall trends, I think that it is important to begin to establish some baseline figures. According to the CIS, for the past three fiscal years, EB immigration (through AOS and CP combined) has been:

    2006: 159,081
    2007: 162,176
    2008: 166,511

    The breakdown by preference for each year, has been:

    2006:
    EB1: 36.960
    EB2: 21,911
    EB3: 89,922
    EB4: 9,539
    EB5: 749

    2007:
    EB1: 26.697
    EB2: 44,162
    EB3: 85,030
    EB4: 5,481
    EB5: 806

    2008:
    EB1: 36.678
    EB2: 70,046
    EB3: 48,903
    EB4: 9,524
    EB5: 1,360

    It was in FY 2007 that the Visa Office changed its interpretation of the statute and began allowing EB2 numbers to "fall across" to single state quota impacted countries, rather than "fall down" into WW EB3, as had been the interpretation previously. Looking at these numbers, we can see the demand made on EB2 and the resulting fewer issuances to EB3.
     
  10. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    The CIS data is not very detailed. We know, for example, that in fiscal year 2008, the total numbers of employment based applicants from each of the countries subject to the single state limit were as follows:

    China: 15,329
    India: 25,577
    Mexico: 8,767
    Philippines: 9,193

    These four countries, combined, used 58,866 of the total 166,511. The remaining 107,645 numbers were used by EB immigrants chargeable to "Worldwide."
     
  11. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    The State Department figures are more detailed. For FY 2008, we see the following EB immigrant admissions (AOS and CP) for the four single state limited quota countries:


    China
    EB1: 5,602
    EB2: 6,964
    EB3: 2,058
    EB4: 93
    EB5: 360

    India:
    EB1: 5,327
    EB2: 14,818
    EB3: 3,747
    EB4: 461
    EB5: 19

    Philippines:
    EB1: 310
    EB2: 2,057
    EB3: 6,156
    EB4: 418
    EB5: 4

    Mexico:
    EB1 1,457
    EB2: 1,348
    EB3: 5,336
    EB4: 680
    EB5: 15

    These numbers give us a bit more perspective as to the breakdown within each single state. For example, for China, there is an almost even split between EB1 and EB2, with a significant falloff for EB3. For India, the clear majority of admissions were EB2. The Philippines and Mexico are definitely EB3 heavy.

    We now need to try and figure out what the backlog looks like. That is, how many cases belong to each single state quota limited country, verses worldwide, and what proportion within this larger group belong to each preference classification. Obviously, we don't have the actual hard data. We can, however, use what we know to begin to make some educated guesses.
     
  12. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

    Messages:
    394
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    Here are data so far in a spread sheet. Correct me if I am wrong here...

    Spread Sheet A = Current backlog of EB cases and spread - Only data for India is available at this point (data as of March 2009)
    Spread Sheet B = Actual number of EB visas issued and spread for year 2008

    A) 2009 - PROJECTION

    The Total Backlog Assumed = 220K


    INDIACHINAMEXICOPHILLIPINESWORLD WIDETOTALEB12,753 2,753 EB251,717 51,717 EB370,838 70,838 EB4268 268 EB56 6 Sub Total125,582 - - - - 220,000 B) 2008- (ACTUAL) DOS/USCIS data INDIACHINAMEXICOPHILLIPINESWORLD WIDETOTALEB15,327 5,602 1,457 310 12,696 EB214,818 6,964 1,348 2,057 25,187 EB33,747 2,058 5,336 6,156 17,297 EB4461 93 680 418 1,652 EB519 360 15 4 398 PLUG1,205 252 (69)248 107,645 109,281 Sub Total25,577 15,329 8,767 9,193 107,645 166,511 ** PLUG row is reconciling the CIS data to DOS data
     
  13. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    Where did you get the data for 2009? Is that from the Senator? One of the things that we need to be mindful of is the fact that these numbers are dynamic. Supposedly, the CIS is reducing the numbers in the backlog as we discuss this. Numbers from even two months ago are going to be stale.

    I think that we need to try to identify three sets of numbers:

    1. What is the makeup of the FY 2009 EB allocation? We have been told that these numbers have all be allocated or reserved. If so, then we should be able to get some idea of how may are EB1, EB2, EB3, etc. and the breakdown by country.
    2. What is the makeup of the "110,000 to 120,000" pre-adjudicated cases? We want to know the same information for these.
    3. What is the makeup of the remaining cases that have not yet been filed?
     
  14. EB2Indy

    EB2Indy Junior Member

    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    Hello Ron,

    I am new to this forum. I would like to participate in the discussions. Couple of assumptions. Since, I am India EB-2 with a Mar. 06 PD I am trying to estimate my waiting time.

    Therefore, when I say Rest of World (ROW); that means China, Phillipines and Mexico included.

    Also, to note from Classical equation=>

    Input = Output + Accumulation

    Accumulation= 200,000 EB visas.

    Input to EB 2 Worldwide is very less given that-

    1. PERM getting certified in 6 months is 37%.

    2. From Oct. 2008- Dec. 2008 - only 4,500 approvals.

    So, only 20,000 applications approved by PERM per year. Out of that if I evenly divide 10,000 EB2 (All) + 10,000 EB3 (All).

    Here is my take on the information that I have read-

    1. Currently, Mr. O of State Dept. estimates that there are 200,000 EB-based I-485 pending at USCIS. That's all EB-based which is EB1+EB2 +EB3+EB4 +EB5 for all countries.

    This number is verifiable from USCIS's performance report for current and pending applications.

    2. For India, there are 120,000 pending out of the 200,000. Given that India EB has moved very slowly this fiscal year 2009, therefore from the Senators data; it can be assumed that there are-
    EB2- 50,000
    EB3- 70,000

    3. Therefore, ROW pending EB is 80,000. Out of that say 14,000 is EB1 + EB4+ EB5. Since; EB4+EB5 program has been oversubscribed this year due to sunsetting provisions. So, ROW EB is 66,000.

    4. Now, USCIS says that it has already pre-adjudicated 120,000 EB-based petitions; which will be sufficient to use next years quota of 140,000. One thing to keep in mind is many of these may be India EB as well.


    5. So, out of the ROW 66000 if, evenly divided EB2= 33000 and EB3=33000. ROW tends to be EB3 more; since EB2 worldwide is current and EB3 worldwide is unavailable.

    6. Worldwide EB2 gets 40,000 yearly; so that would be sufficient to exhume the EB2 worldwide 33000 + EB2 India and China (Earlier PD).

    7. Then there is the regular supply of Fresh EB2 Worldwide of 10,000 per year + all EB2 India Apr. 2004 (Since, Visa Bulletin stood at that date for a long time for EB2 India) onwards. Also; I am guessing-

    Total EB2 India Apr. 04 - Dec. 04=> 10000
    Year 2005 => 5000 (Since, PERM was implemented first year)
    2006 => 2000
    Now, last year in 2008 many EB2 India got their GCs due to family spillover; so I am subtracting 2000.

    8. So, for me India EB2 with Mar. 06 PD once I reach Oct. 2010; do I have a good chance of getting my PD current. Given that my only competition is EB2 Worldwide 10000 per year (fresh batch) and the EB2 Apr.04 who are ahead of me. So, total comes to 25,000 EB2 ahead of me in Fiscal year 2011.


    Please let me know if you would agree with my hypothesis.





     
  15. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    First, let's deal with definitions. You wrote:
    I understand that as far as you are concerned, the rest of the world means everyone other than you. For our purposes here, however, the term "worldwide" (or the slang expression, ROW), means the entire quota minus the four countries that are subject to single state limits. I'd rather not start re-defining terms for purposes of this analysis.

    Next, I question some of the assumptions you have made, such as splitting the approved PERMs evenly between those that qualify for EB2 and those that qualify for EB3. That is not consistent with historic numbers.

    Finally, I am troubled by the number "200,000." I think that is an old figure and I am concerned that we may be double counting.

    Having said all of that, I don't want you to think I am being overly critical of your work. I applaud your effort and enthusiasm. I just want to impose a strict methodology on our analysis.

    I think that we need to research our numbers carefully and then proceed on the basis of either known values or historically indisputable assumptions. For example, we can look at the historic ratio of EB1 to EB2 to EB3 and then tweak that for recent variations. We also need to look at the ratio of usage by the individual single state limited countries to each other and worldwide. When we have these ratios, all we need to do is obtain accurate backlog numbers and then plug them in to get a close approximation of the actual backlogs by country and preference classification. That, in turn, will allow us to apply known supply figures to work out a reasonably accurate timetable for cutoff date movement.
     
  16. sc3

    sc3 Senior Member

    Messages:
    93
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    I don't get it. EB3 India is the most retrogressed of the 3 countries, and yet, India gets far fewer visas in EB3 category than the other numerically limited countries? What actions can we take against DoS/USCIS for them to fix their broken system of allocation. It is bad enough that there aren't enough numbers available, but to see such gross deviance from established law of the land is hard to ignore.

    Also, EB3-I-OW tends to be ahead of EB3-I, it has been so consitently (till the last 2 bulletins when there were some numbers available). I thought EB3-OW quota has a max limit, but no min limit, so it can at all times only stay at or behind EB3-I. And yet, the bulletins show EB3-I-OW to be ahead. What gives?
     
  17. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    I have some new information that I gained as a result of working on an article on this subject. This information is highly accurate as of June 18, 2009.

    The TSC and NSC have requested visa numbers through the automated system set up for this purpose. There are two types of requests:

    1. Requests for visa numbers that are current so that an AOS file can be closed out immediately; and,
    2. Requests for visa numbers that are not current.
    Requests in the second category are referred to as "pending demand" requests. They go into a queue. When a visa number becomes current, the Visa Office sends an e-mail to the requesting CIS office, notifying them that a visa number is available and providing them with an authorization code so that they may close the case immediately and approve the adjustment.

    As of June 18, 2009, the requests by the TSC and NSC for available visa numbers and pending visa numbers were as follows:

    Available visas:
    TSC: 49,000
    NSC: 39,000
    Total: 88,000

    Pending demand visas:
    TSC: 58,000
    NSC: 66,000
    Total: 124,000

    Total available and pending requests: 212,000

    These numbers are from an unimpeachable source and I trust them more than I trust the CIS numbers. I'm told that the CIS has definitely requested enough numbers for this year to exhaust the EB annual quota completely. Thus, the numbers shown for available visas probably represent cases the CIS has approved for this fiscal year, but have not yet officially closed (and not yet notified the applicants).

    This means that they have also pre-approved 124,000 cases against future quotas and will close those cases as soon as visa numbers become current. For the most part, this will be during FY 2010, which begins October 1st.

    These numbers only represent CIS demand through yesterday. The TSC director said at the AILA annual conference that his center and the NSC still have cases to close out. He said that they should complete the processing of "all pending I-485s" by the end of July. We can get the revised numbers in August and have a much better idea of how many cases have been approved and whether the backlog has been eliminated.

    By early July, I hope to have an accurate breakdown of the makeup of the existing quota by preference category and country of charge.
     
  18. SeanD

    SeanD Senior Member

    Messages:
    394
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    UPDATE - % added by EB Category for 2008 data

    Here are data so far in a spread sheet. Correct me if I am wrong here...

    Spread Sheet A = Current backlog of EB cases and spread - Only data for India is available at this point (data as of March 2009)
    Spread Sheet B = Actual number of EB visas issued and spread for year 2008

    A) 2009 - PROJECTION - The Total Backlog Assumed = 220K
    INDIA

    CHINA

    MEXICO

    PHILLIPINES

    WORLD WIDE

    TOTAL

    EB1

    2,753

    2,753

    EB2

    51,717

    51,717

    EB3

    70,838

    70,838

    EB4

    268

    268

    EB5

    6

    6

    Sub Total

    125,582

    -

    -

    -

    -

    220,000





    B) 2008 - ACTUAL - DOS/USCIS Data


    INDIA



    CHINA



    MEXICO



    PHILLIPINES



    WORLD WIDE



    TOTAL

    EB1

    5,327
    15%


    5,602
    15%


    1,457
    4%


    310
    1%


    23,982
    65%


    36,678

    EB2

    14,818
    21%


    6,964
    10%


    1,348
    2%


    2,057
    3%


    44,859
    64%


    70,046

    EB3

    3,747
    8%


    2,058
    4%


    5,336
    11%


    6,156
    13%


    31,606
    65%


    48,903

    EB4

    461
    5%


    93
    1%


    680
    7%


    418
    4%


    7,872
    83%


    9,524

    EB5

    19
    1%


    360
    26%


    15
    1%


    4
    0%


    962
    71%


    1,360

    PLUG

    1,205


    252



    (69)



    248



    (1,636)



    -

    Sub Total

    25,577



    15,329



    8,767



    9,193



    107,645



    166,511

    ** PLUG row is reconciling the CIS data to DOS data


     
    srinu_chirala likes this.
  19. Ron Gotcher

    Ron Gotcher Attorney at Law

    Messages:
    35,917
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Trophy Points:
    25,213
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    We can't look at any of these numbers as being persistent. That is, they change daily. The numbers that I posted are about as official as one can get. Still, they were accurate as of last Thursday. By today, the numbers have changed. The CIS has done quite a bit over the last couple of months.

    Now, with respect to the "decades" comment, I think that this has been grossly misunderstood. I very much doubt that Mr. Oppenheim intended to convey the notion that people waiting in line today will have to wait decades for visas. I'm confident this is the case because the math just doesn't support such a statement. In a very strict sense, involving factors we have never seen nor are likely to ever see, and barring any legislative relief, then in theory, the waiting list could stretch out for decades. In reality, however, this is not the case nor will it ever be the case.
     
  20. hamame76

    hamame76 Junior Member

    Messages:
    20
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Re: Invitation to collaborate

    Available visas:
    TSC: 49,000
    NSC: 39,000
    Total: 88,000


    Ron,
    Correct me if wrong.
    DOS has mentined that most of the visa for 2009 has been used (allocated).
    Does this means USCIS has requested the visa numbers for 88,000 application but did not sent the apporval yet and between today and end of Sep 2009 we will see 88,000 approvals.
    if the above is true then can you guess how the 88,000 will be distributed between different EB Catagories,
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page